Unknown concentrations of risk


Photo by John Stewart, May, 2001.

I was driving across the Lafayette Bridge on my way to work five years ago when I turned on my radio to catch the scores and instead heard the national news anchors and reporters describing how an airplane had crashed into one of the World Trade Center towers. Details were sketchy, they were trying to find out more, they didn’t know what kind of plane it was for certain, the atmosphere was reminiscent of the ’93 truck bombing in the WTC parking ramp…and then a reporter said, “My God, something has hit the other tower!”

When I got to work a crowd of my co-workers were cycling through our largest conference room, trying to watch a portable 6-inch black and white tv screen that was the only thing we had capable of pulling in a signal. Like the rest of the country we desperately wanted to know what was going on, what was going to happen, and how bad was it. We also had a very pressing, personal need to get a handle on what was happening.

I work for a large global financial services company. The division I’m in is a very small part of that empire, and we deal in rather esoteric product lines that are unnoticed by most consumers. Essentially, we provide insurance to insurance companies to help them limit catastrophic losses, and on that day an important part of our business included backstopping workers’ compensation plans. Additionally, much of our business is placed by brokerage companies and many of these had offices in the two towers. There were a lot of personal and business contacts concentrated in those buildings, many of whom had become friends with our employees. As the horror of the day continued to mount, we were also starting to realize that these friends and contacts also fell into another category: they were our insureds. One of our people, staring woodenly at the tiny monitor, asked aloud, “How many insured lives do we have in those buildings?” Someone from the work comp line said, weakly, “I don’t know, but it has got to be a lot.”

Already, company headquarters in Europe was in touch with our local leadership, wanting to know what the potential claims might be because they were being pressured by investment analysts to release a report as quickly as possible. The fact was, because of the nature of the business and the tools that were available at the time, we had almost no way of knowing what the impact might be. We knew what insurance companies were our clients, of course, but didn’t know much about what companies they were insuring, let alone where those insureds might actually work. It’s what our industry refers to as “unknown concentrations of risk.” With limited data, working by guess and by gut, overnight we provided a chilling estimate roughly equal to our division’s expected earnings for the year. Ultimately, we’d be wrong by about a factor of eight — and on the low side.

We also had about a dozen of our people traveling around the country that day, many of them on the East Coast. We couldn’t reach them, their respective staffs were digging up their itineraries, trying to cross-reference them with what details were available through the media, and trying to reassure family members calling in with the inevitable, desperate question…”Do you know what flight so-and-so was supposed to be on?” Thankfully, by the end of the day, everyone was safely accounted for, though with some interesting stories to tell. One of our guys was bound for Detroit and his flight was redirected to the K.I. Sawyer Air Force base in Michigan. Of course, he knew nothing about what was going on, and looking out the window as they landed he thought that it sure didn’t look anything like any airport he’d ever landed at before. With the airlines grounded he and our other employees in similar circumstances had to piece together arrangements for getting home. Inconvenient, sure, but nothing like the desperate days ahead for the families of the missing – and for our business as the full impact of the day’s events began to emerge.

Within the next two months the corporate decision was made that we would no longer take on risks for business with “unknown concentrations”. The work comp area was especially susceptible to this type of business, and that unit was shut down by the end of the year, sucking that group of my friends and co-workers into the economic downturn that was gathering momentum. In January of 2002 I walked through the part of our offices where they had been and the empty chairs and cubes were yet another symbolic reminder that the “missing” from 9/11 extended far beyond the borders of New York City. At least my friends were still alive even if they had been cut loose into a world that had been shaken to othe point where none of us could predict what it would look like in five years.

Ironically, several months before 9/11 some of our brightest folks had already started looking at what ways and tools could be used to pinpoint insurance risk on a real-time basis. It wasn’t an exactly unknown concept, but the amount of data gathering that would have to be done was considered to be too prohibitive. It was thought that no insurance company would be willing to provide that kind of information even if they had a way to collect it. In one day, however, people realized they had to think differently, and obviously not just in the insurance business. My company in general, and my division in particular, rebounded in the coming years. We implemented the tools and techniques once thought to be too complicated and unwieldy and they are now a fact of life throughout our industry.

9/11 was a day when many things once thought to be impossible suddenly became possible. My division, my company, my industry, my country … we all began to look at things differently, and to learn from the experience. I think that at the level of my business, we’ve learned from these hard lessons and applied them. The scars of that day are still sobering reminders that direct our thinking and plans for the future; we will never again think like we did on September 10, 2001. Sadly, on the political level those lessons appeared to have been cleared away like the rubble from Ground Zero and the field has been left open once again for political gamesmanship and maneuvering while altogether too many people forget that the ultimate score isn’t being kept by political points. The unknown concentrations of risk are still out there.

Challenging Word of the Week: ukase



Ukase

(YOOH kase, yooh KAZE) noun



Originally, in imperial Russia, a ukase was an order or edict handed down by the Czar, which automatically acquired the force of law, but the term has now come to denote any preemptory proclamation issued by an absolute or arbitrary authority without right of appeal. The use of the term need not be confined to duly constituted government authorities. It can be said that certain party bosses never make suggestions or call for them; they simply hand out ukases. Hollywood moguls, old style, operated by ukase. We took the word from the French, who based it on Russian ukaz*.



My example: Bill Clinton and the leadership of the Democratic Party issued a ukase to Disney and ABC last week (see also this).



Is it really so surprising that the freedom-loving left — so admiring of the repressive regimes of Castro and Chavez and concerned that the rights of non-citizen terrorists are being infringed — can’t wait to apply the same techniques here at home? They can’t even wait to see if they’ll come into power first, because in their own minds they’ve never been out of power.



* From the book, “1000 Most Challenging Words” by Norman W. Schur, ©1987 by the Ballantine Reference Library, Random House. I post a weekly “Challenging Words” definition to call more attention to this delightful book and to promote interesting word usage in the blogosphere. I challenge other bloggers to work the current word into a post sometime in the coming week. If you manage to do so, please leave a comment or a link to where I can find it. Previous words in this series can be found under the appropriate Category heading in the right-hand sidebar.

Another 9/11 conspiracy?

There appears to be a booming market in 9/11 conspiracy theories, especially among academics nestled into their home-made Skinner boxes, toggling their BDS* gratification buttons. Meanwhile a much more brazen attack on free-speech is carried out by Harry Reid, Chuck Schumer, Byron Dorgan and Dick Durbin (leaders of the Party-Not-In-Power) who not only threatened the broadcasting license of Disney (parent company of ABC) if it didn’t cancel or alter its broadcast of “The Road to 9-11”, but were even willing to put it in writing. ABC, btw, has complied. I’m waiting for Tim “There’s a Chill Wind Blowing Through Our Nation” Robbins to jump up and say, “See! I told you so!” (HT: Hugh Hewitt)

Something else that caught my attention earlier this week, however, is the decision by certain CBS affiliates not to rebroadcast the “9/11” documentary because they’re supposedly afraid the coarse language will cause them to be fined by the FCC. This is the award-winning documentary by the two French brothers who were making a film about the experiences of a rookie New York City firefighter and in the process ended up in the front lines of the action that horrible day. As such, the film captured the blunt and passionate responses and language of the firefighters on the scene, as well as the sounds of bodies hitting the roof of the plaza outside the lobby of Tower One where the firefighters had set up a command post. CBS has already broadcast this at least twice (that I’m aware of) in the past without controversy. Those broadcasts were before the 2004 Janet Jackson Super Bowl scandal, which led the FCC to increase fines for broadcasters that allow offensive content to go out over the air.

Several dozen CBS affiliates have decided to either replace the documentary or delay its broadcast until after 10 p.m., when the Federal Communications Commission loosens restrictions — even though the film has already aired twice with little controversy.

“This is example No. 1” of the chilling effect over concerns about profanity, said Martin Franks, executive vice president of CBS Corp.

Hey — there’s that “chilling” word again! Apparently Mr. Franks wouldn’t dream of bleeping out or aurally pixillating the bad words. I’m very familiar with this documentary having watched its original broadcast and taping the replay a year later. I recently viewed it again when I showed it to the group of young men in my “Fundamentals in Film” class. This close to the fall elections I think CBS – the network of Dan Rather, Mary Mapes and “fake but accurate” standards — is really more concerned about stirring the passions of the public than with offending its morals. I also think the network can’t resist the opportunity to gig the FCC and the current administration over the heavy-handed federal sanctions.

I think the language CBS is most concerned about is the part at the end when young Tony, the rookie firefighter, tells the camera, “I’d much rather save lives than take lives, but after this, if my country wants to send me to fight then I’ll go.”

* Bush Derangement Syndrome

On ordaining women

This is a post I have written in response to one written by Dave Christison which you can read here, with a follow up here. Dave did a great job in pointing out many questions that arise when considering this issue of whether women can and should be elders in a church or ordained as pastors. He even phoned me after I left a comment on his post and we had a wonderful conversation, and I was greatly encouraged to respond to his post by writing this.

I am very sensitive of the fact that this can be a heated issue, and as a long-time elder and recently ordained pastor in my church I obviously have strong feelings of my own. More important than feelings, however, is what the Word of God says, and I believe scripture is fully consistent with this calling. In fact, the church I attend is very conservative in reading, interpreting and applying God’s word in our lives. Our practice of ordaining men and women who are called is based on this word and not on worldly notions of what is “fair” or politically correct. Yet if scripture is our guide, aren’t there verses (especially in 2 Timothy and I Corinthians 11 and 14) that clearly take a contrary position?

The short answer is no. Even better, the longer answer doesn’t require a lot of linguistic gymnastics or stretched rationalizations. In order to make this more interesting and enlightening I will rely heavily on a small tome that was given to me by sister at my ordination last December. The author puts it clearly and succinctly, in a way I could hardly hope to. The book is entitled Ordaining Women, by Rev. B.T. Roberts, A.M., written in 1891 (yes, that was 1891), well before what might be recognized as secular feminism. The book does an excellent job of presenting the biblical case for women in leadership.

I see Badmoud rising

We had our annual fantasy football draft last night and despite having a bad draft position I think my team, Badmoud Ahmadinutjob, came out of it in pretty good shape. I chose that team name, by the way, for a couple of reasons: 1) most of the teams in my league don’t even bother to come up with a team name and just go by the name of the team owner (boring) so maybe I’ll just go by a first and last name as well, and 2) team names typically imply fierceness and intimidation and I thought this was a great way to keep my opponents off-balance and ineffective while I went about achieving my own objectives. Right now I’d have to say my strategy worked (and Mike Wallace assures us that the real Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is really a wonderful guy and probably won’t be offended).

Of course my strategy wasn’t as simple as selecting a team name. I also kept buying beers for the hot-head owner in our league who was sitting next to me, while I whispered to him some of the things a couple of the other owners across the table from him were saying about his draft. Believe me, the ensuing tensions distracted at least three teams while I scored scud, I mean, stud after stud for my team (which I formerly named “Weapons of Mass Distraction”). Whenever someone thought he knew what I was up to and called me on it I just said, “Who, me?” as innocently as I could muster. Then I’d turn around and proclaim death for the (Detroit) Lionists at the table (which didn’t stop me from drafting Roy Williams, however).

Oh sure, there was the usual ineffectual talk about “league sanctions” but I knew no one was going to do anything as long as I had control of the plate of chicken wings. Whenever things got too dicey I’d suggest that I might be willing to discuss passing a few wings around the table. Even at that things did finally begin to get a little rowdy and the bar owner threatened to call the police to act as a peace-keepers, but I know half those guys on the force and they’re not going to hassle me.

All in all it was a great night and an important step as we make our way toward the main event — the play-offs. I can’t wait!

Btw, here’s my lineup for you fantasy football fans out there (I know the non-fans quit reading this post a couple of paragraphs ago). In a 10-team league I picked, in order of selection:

Peyton Manning, IND
Willie Parker, PIT
Anquan Boldin, AZ
Roy Williams, DET
Thomas Jones, CHI
Tatum Bell, DEN
Javon Walker, DEN
Laurence Maroney, NE
Brandon Jacobs, NYG
Greg Jennings, NYG
Cedric Benson, CHI
Reggie Brown, PHI
Josh Brown, SEA

I know, by picking Tatum Bell and Laurence Maroney I’ve subjected myself to a season’s worth of mind-games from their coaches, Mike Shanahan and Bill Belichek, but what can I say? Bill and Mike are the masters of misdirection, and the official heroes of Badmoud Ahmadinutjob! Game on!

Back in the desk chair again

That was refreshing! Taking a month off from blogging (or at least from daily blogging) was a great break and I’m feeling all bubbly and tingly — or maybe that’s just because I used my wife’s shampoo this morning.

Anyway, I’m looking forward to getting back in my rhythm and I’ve got a few story ideas and links that I’ve stashed while I was away that I’ll probably be getting into in the next few days. Of course, I noted that I wasn’t the only blogger taking time off and I laughed outloud last week when I got my copy of the Wall Street Journal and saw an article about bloggers on vacation (subscription required to read the link, sorry). The story talked about how the big name bloggers such as Michelle Malkin and Andrew Sullivan handled their vacations and the overall drop in readership despite lining up distinguished guest bloggers to keep the blog lamps lit. It appears that many readers have a distinct affinity for the person who’s name is on the blog and they may tend to visit less often when that person isn’t writing.

This interesting information leaves me feeling a bit odd, considering my experience. Of course, I have little in common with Malkin, Reynolds, Sullivan, Hewitt, Jarvis, et al, when it comes to the blogosphere. We all blog, but I’m a grunion to their whales even though we swim in the same sea. For example, their readership dropped by tens of thousands of visitors per day while they were gone; I can just barely say I’ve had tens of thousands of visitors stop by here in total in the 18 months since I put out my electronic “welcome” sign. Perhaps some of the uber-bloggers’ wayward readers were coming over here in August because my average daily visitors actually went — er, uh — up while I was on vacation. When I kicked back, I was averaging close to 80 visitors a day. That was great, and a heady change from the days when breaking into the 30s was cause for a celebration. Now, a month after leaving this blog largely in the hands of my daughters the Mall Diva and Tiger Lilly, the daily average is nearly 100 visitors (and now the Reverend Mother is about to make her much anticipated debut as well)!

Ooooo-kay. This is good news, right? But how long before they start lobbying for a change in the name of this blog? This makes for an interesting problem for me, and hopefully, more interesting reading for you.

Oh well, the family that blogs together … uh, fights over the computer.

Challenging Word of the WeeK: traduce

Traduce
(truh DOOHS, -DYOOHS) verb

To traduce someone is to slander him, vilify him, malign, defame, and calumniate him, speak falsely and with malice toward him or his character; from Latin traducere (to disgrace), a variant of transducere (literally, to carry over; figuratively, to expose, “show up”). In Shakespeare’s Othello (Act V, Scene 2), Othello cries to Lodovico who has come to arrest him:

…In Aleppo once,
Where a malignant and turban’d Turk
Beat a Venetian and traduc’d the State,
I took by the throat the circumcised dog
And smote him thus.

Whereupon, he obeys Shakespeare’s stage directions: Stabs himself. Things are tough all around and it’s a bloody mess; but getting back to words and definitions, avoid the common error of identifying slander or defame with libel. Without going into legal minutiae and ramifications, libel is slander in written form and “published”, i.e., communicated in that form to a third party or parties. Best advice: Keep your mouth shut and your pen in your pocket.

My example: In an election year, the end of summer means the weather is cooling just as the political traducing season is really heating up. That’s some good advice above, though.

From the book, “1000 Most Challenging Words” by Norman W. Schur, ©1987 by the Ballantine Reference Library, Random House. I post a weekly “Challenging Words” definition to call more attention to this delightful book and to promote interesting word usage in the blogosphere. I challenge other bloggers to work the current word into a post sometime in the coming week. If you manage to do so, please leave a comment or a link to where I can find it. Previous words in this series can be found under the appropriate Category heading in the right-hand sidebar.

Perhaps they’ll stay at a Holiday Inn Express

Laura Lee at the Wide Awake Cafe has some thoughts about how former president Jimmy Carter might entertain former Iranian President Khatami when they get together to commiserate over their failed administrations (I commented with some ideas of my own). I don’t know what Carter gets out of this except for another chance to sanctimoniously crap on the administration while trying to push kitty litter over his own performance.

The appeal for Khamani is obvious, however. If you’d like to ruin the U.S. economy, decimate America’s defense capability and globally humiliate a country then it makes sense to talk to someone who’s already done it.

Who’s next — Ron Dayne?

I’m not officially back from my August vacation from blogging until next Tuesday, but I had to post a quick take on the Vikings and their new West Coast Offense — or is that the Wisconsin Cast-off Offense?

I can understand a football coach wanting to bring in guys who already know his offense and/or are people he knows pretty well. Some of the moves by the Brad Childress/Darrell Bevell brain trust make me wonder whatever happened to the idea that familiarity breeds contempt? I mean, trading an undrafted free agent for the underwhelming Billy McMullen didn’t concern me too much; after all, someone’s got to be your fifth receiver. I tried to stay calm with the Mike McMahon signing, hoping that Childress had to know something more about the guy than what anyone watching him play on television the last three years could see.

After McMahon’s pre-season floppage I started to get nervous when Koy Detmer and Todd Pinkston were released by the Eagles this week. I mean, as bad as McMahon has been, why pick up the guy who was behind him on the Eagles quarterback depth chart last year? Detmer’s such a useless bottom-feeder I think he should change the spelling of his first name to “Koi”. As for Pinkston — or “Stinkston” as he known in my fantasy football league — the guy is around 6′ 5″ which is good, but he weights as much as the Mall Diva and he gets off the line with the same ease as a ’74 Pacer.

At least the trade for Brooks Bollinger, who Childress and Bevell know from their Wisconsin days, eliminates any concern that Detmer is on the way (and Bollinger actually showed brief flashes of competence last year playing for a horrible team). With Ron Dayne expected to be released this weekend by the Broncos, however, the threat level is still at Badger-Red. With Dayne’s size you might think he’d be a good goal-line back, but his career has demonstrated that the only line he has a nose for is the one at the post-game buffet. It’s going to be a long weekend.

Update:

Aaarrgh!

Trivia Roundup

One more week of blogging vacation for me, but I thought I better get my summary of last Friday night’s Trivia Challenge up and on display.

As you can tell from the photo below, Team “Three Weddings and Funeral” showed up at the Friday night trivia event ready to play and with fire in our eyes. That’s Jeff and Leo in the front (left to right) and myself and Ben on the opposite side of the table.

We were in the thick of it, but we had trouble with names, losing a point because we could only come up with half of the name of the Irish president, and missing an easy lay-up on the name of the proprietor of Keegan’s due to an epic brain-fart (to be fair, the Twins had runners in scoring position against the White Sox on the TV over our heads at the time). Those are points you just can’t let get away in rarefied air of such a heady competition. We did know, however, that Damascus is the longest continually inhabited capital in the world (for a few more months, anyway).

Congratulations to Terry Keegan (see, we know the name) for coming up with some truly worthy questions (unlike the People magazine trolling that has characterized more recent Thursday night contests) and to our local Fraters Libertas team (fortified with Atomizer’s mother) for keeping Hugh Hewitt and his All Stars from coming into our house and making off with the hardware. Best of all, the event raised a couple of grand for Soldier’s Angels, the MOB’s official favorite charity (next to Keegan’s, that is).