Author Archives: The Night Writer

The 655,000 fraud

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An op-ed in today’s Wall Street Journal (subscription required) somewhat incredulously questions the credulity of the reporters and editors disseminating without question last week’s Washington Post article about the John Hopkins study (published in the Lancet) that attributes 655,000 excess deaths in Iraq as a result of the war (emphasis mine):

“We have no reason to question the findings,” the Post quoted a Human Rights Watch official as saying. The article was fairly typical of reporting on the Lancet study, which has also been all over television and radio, as well as Internet sites such as Google and Yahoo! news.

All of which leaves us wondering if reporters and editors have enough sense anymore to ask basic questions about such enormous numbers, or whether they are simply too biased against the Bush Administration and its Iraq policy to do so. The 655,000 figure is more than 10 times higher than previous estimates of violent deaths in Iraq since the U.S. invasion, and it is larger than the number of Germans killed by allied bombing during all of World War II and larger than the number of Americans who died during our own Civil War.

While it’s obvious that Iraq has a terrible problem with sectarian violence at the moment, we find it hard to believe killing on the scale of Antietam or Gettysburg has been going on without anybody having noticed until the statistical wizards from Johns Hopkins showed up.

The 655,000 figure turns out to be an extrapolation based on a very inadequate sampling process. Pollster Steven E. Moore, who has worked extensively in Iraq, pointed out in an op-ed on this page yesterday that the Lancet study is based on information from a mere 47 “cluster points” around Iraq and 1,849 total interviews.

By contrast, a 2004 U.N. survey of Iraq used 2,200 cluster points for more than 21,000 interviews. The Johns Hopkins researchers also appear to have collected no demographic data on their subjects, so the group cannot be compared to census data to check if it is representative. “I wouldn’t survey a junior high school, no less an entire country, using only 47 cluster points,” Mr. Moore wrote.

Iraq Body Count — a nonpartisan outfit that keeps track of Iraqi mortality figures — has also issued a devastating critique of the Lancet/Johns Hopkins survey. It points out that the study implies that a thousand Iraqis died violently every day in the first half of 2006, with fewer than a tenth of them being noticed by “public surveillance mechanisms” and the press, as well as “incompetence and/or fraud on a truly massive scale by Iraqi officials in hospitals and ministries.”

Wow. Extrapolation like this makes even the people behind the Minnesota Poll look like pikers.

Jiminy Cricket!

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When you get in trouble and you don’t know right from wrong
Give a little whistle! Give a little whistle!
When you meet temptation and the urge is very strong
Give a little whistle! Give a little whistle!

Not just a little squeak, pucker up and blow
And if your whistle’s weak, yell, “Jiminy Cricket!”
Right!

Take the straight and narrow path
And if you start to slide
Give a little whistle! Give a little whistle!
And always let your conscience be your guide

An MTC bus driver asks to be excused from driving buses that advertise a local gay magazine. Muslim cab drivers at the Minneapolis airport refuse to transport passengers carrying alcohol. Some pharmacists refuse to dispense “morning after” pills. Why does an individual bringing his or her conscience into the workplace make headlines?

Actually, someone’s conscience is at the root of just about everything that makes headlines, whether it’s the story of a liquour store being held up, domestic abuse, egregious stock options or lieing about an opponent in a political advertisement. In each case someone has made a decision about what is right or wrong for them and pushed his or her morality on others, usually with negative consequences. Most will agree that the examples I just cited reflect bad behavior but shrug it off as just the way things are; perhaps we’ll even feel a little personal smugness becuase “I wouldn’t do something like that.” But what about when someone acts out of his or her desire to do what they think is right, even if it stands in opposition to society’s norms? Why is it easier for us (or the pundits, anyway) to shake their heads at those who act badly out of their own self-interest, but shake their fists at those others for being self-righteous?

In a free society and a free market these actions should not be a big issue. True, it can lead to inconveniences and even some perceived injustices, but these can be managed by the market. If a taxi-driver at the airport doesn’t want to take a passenger carrying booze (or even, by their same reasoning, an unveiled or unescorted woman), so be it, but suffer the consequences of the market. If there’s a sudden surge in the numbers of women or alcohol-carrying passengers waiting at the airport, other cabs can move in. If the airport, in an effort to serve it’s passengers, passes a rule that says a cab either takes the next waiting fare or goes back to the end of the line, that’s fine, too. Everyone gets to make a choice. It’s not too different from telling the taxi captain that you want a cab that accepts credit cards, which is already common practice at the airport.

In the case of the pharmacies and birth-control or morning-after pills, women have a right to buy these things, just as I have a right to buy ammunition. Nevertheless, I can’t walk into any drugstore or sporting goods store and expect to find bullets. If a business-owner decides it is personally important not to offer something, it is his or her choice — and he or she can live with the business consequences if enough people choose to go elsewhere. Or the businessperson can hire some pharmacists who are willing to sell these items and some who won’t, or even decide to hire only pharmacists who will.

In the bus driver’s situation, allowing a reasonable accomodation to the person’s beliefs shouldn’t be that big of an issue, especially if the bus company decides that it is worth it in order to keep a skilled or experienced employee. For all I know, the same bus company may aleady allow Muslim drivers to take time out from their routes to pray at the prescribed times (though this seems difficult to work around). If the bus company doesn’t want to do these things, the drivers have a choice of what is more important as well.

I’ve had some experience with this type of situation myself. I once worked for a small advertising and promotion agency that landed a large account with a brewery. There was great rejoicing by the owners of the agency. It was also a great creative opportunity to do some high-profile work that would look good in a portfolio. I was asked to be the copywriter for the client’s main brands. This was an issue for me in that, while I’m not going to try and stop people from drinking, I believe it is wrong for me to encourage them to do so. At the same time, I had a young family to support. It wasn’t easy but I told the creative director that I couldn’t work on those brands. This was not well received because, after all, it was a “legal product.” I asked the CD how he’d feel about working on a cigarette account. It was then arranged that I would work instead on the non-alcoholic beer and bottled water brands for that account. Would I have quit my job of been fired if that hadn’t happened? Most likely. It wouldn’t have been a challenge I embraced, but I trust that God is my source and not the job I happen to hold. Others might have chosen differently, but that too is their choice.

While I may find situations where I am inconvenienced or offended by someone exercising their conscience, I am not going to try to ban it (this does not extend to someone who feels it is his religious duty to kill me, however). We all need to just deal with it; shop somewhere else, work somewhere else, we’ll find the place that makes us happy. There is nothing so intolerant as laws requiring “tolerance” as we’ve seen this week with certain groups advocating for an international law against criticizing global warming theories (this applies only to the global warming theories that agree that there is such a thing, that is).

All too familiar

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The Writer’s Almanac had this poem today by Linda Pastan from her book, Queen of a Rainy Country. It’s an apt description of the way I often feel about blogging.

Rereading Frost

Sometimes I think all the best poems
have been written already,
and no one has time to read them,
so why try to write more?

At other times though,
I remember how one flower
in a meadow already full of flowers
somehow adds to the general fireworks effect

as you get to the top of a hill
in Colorado, say, in high summer
and just look down at all that brimming color.
I also try to convince myself

that the smallest note of the smallest
instrument in the band,
the triangle for instance,
is important to the conductor

who stands there, pointing his finger
in the direction of the percussions,
demanding that one silvery ping.
And I decide not to stop trying,

at least not for a while, though in truth
I’d rather just sit here reading
how someone else has been acquainted
with the night already, and perfectly.
— Linda Pastan

An inside look at a sophisticated marketing program

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Some of you may be aware of a raging controversy over at the Hammerswing 75 blog regarding what to call those knitted things the Mall Diva wears over her wrists and palms (but not her fingers). MD calls them wrist sweaters, which some find outrageous, and others, insidious. (Read the comments at the link for details, and vote here to register your choice).

Some, however, think they are a great fashion accessory, as well as being practical, no matter what they are called. The ever-entrepreneurial Kingdavid , however, wanted to know how I, as a marketing guru, would package this great new product. Since he’s thrown down the gauntlet, so to speak, I’ll share a few details here.

What you need to do today in these times of diffused media is build product awareness through so-called “viral” methods. You can’t use one-way broadcast bombardments any more in the hopes of beating down people’s defenses or ambivalence. You need to use the so-called viral network marketing. For example, find a young, charismatic trend-setter that people naturally want to emulate, and position that person in a niche market that is still well connected. Then, with a few strategic moves you generate a mini-controversy to generate additional buzz; with any luck you’ll get a poll going, leading to more strong feelings.

I love it when a plan comes together.

A whole team of kicking specialists

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With all of our Sunday afternoon activities I missed seeing any of the afternoon football games, so I worked the tv remote pretty hard Sunday night, flipping between the Denver-Oakland game, “The Blitz” on ESPN and the scoreboard show on the NFL Network, trying to catch highlights of the games and “my” fantasy football guys. In the process I saw many views of the University of Miami vs. Florida International University football game.

At least, it started out as a football game. You’ve heard the old joke about going to a professional fight and a hockey game breaking out? This was like watching a football game … and jihad breaking out. Either that or it was group auditions for Riverdance.

You can see for yourself here.

An expensive weekend

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I took the awnings down off of the house this weekend and stowed them in the garage attic without incident or injury but that doesn’t necessarily mean I escaped a beating. My car is due for some new tires and with the first flakes flying this past week I knew I shouldn’t put it off very much longer.

I’ll usually go just about anywhere that has a coupon to get commodity-type car service such as oil changes, but for any serious auto work we go to Weinhagen’s, a family-run business in St. Paul across the the street from the Wabasha caves. They may charge more than the chain places, but we’ve used them for nearly ten years and trust their work and advice. We don’t usually need a lot of work done, but the Weinhagens always remember us by name when we come in or call and they don’t have to look us up in a computer to do so. We only buy used cars and always take any vehicle we’re considering buying to them for a thorough check out first.

I think it’s worth paying a little more for service when it’s with people you trust, especially when safety is involved. When the Mall Diva started driving I took her in there to introduce her to the guys and told her if she ever had a “check engine” light come on or any other problem while she was driving she was to come directly to this garage (heavens knows, it’s no use calling me — I can’t do anything to fix a car unless it somehow involves swinging a rubber mallet); I told the guys if they ever saw her they were to see she got what she needed and I’d settle up at the end of the day. Everyone was cool with that.

Tires fall into that “commodity” category, however, so once I found out the size I needed I went on-line to check prices and available brands at Tires Plus, Firestone and Discount Tire. Ouch! Everyone was running about $200 higher than I was expecting. Just to be thorough, I called Weinhagen’s to see what they had to offer. Not only did they greet me warmly by name when I called, but they offered me a set of 50,000 mile warranty tires in my original price range and vouched that they were the same brand and make of tire that they put on all their company vehicles.

With that taken care of, and the awnings stowed, it was time for some more important maintenance: the Reverend Mother and I went out to Muffuletta for dinner Saturday night to celebrate our anniversary. We’ve only been here a couple of times, but we really like it. The menu changes every day but it’s always imaginative and first rate. It’s a great place for a “special” event or to indulge yourself when you’re looking for something beyond the usual meat and potatoes. When Marjorie and I go out to eat she maintains her lithe figure by only ordering a cup of soup or salad and saving room for dessert, while eating the vegetables I won’t touch from my entree. Saturday night, however we shared the basket of homemade bread and crackers (yes, they make their own crackers, too) which came with a sweet pepper dip, an appetizer of sweet potato croquettes (delicious!) and a salad, and then she had an order of gnocchi with squash and pine nuts while I had the pan-seared Dijon chicken breast on a bed of bacon, apples, leeks and some kind of purple potato that I can’t remember where it comes from. Then she had an espresso custard with whipped cream for dessert (ok, I helped a little). Everything was fantastic! Fortunately I had won a $25 American Express gift certificate at work the week before, so our evening was merely indulgent but not excessive.

Sunday there was no Vikings game on tv, so we joined a large group and went out to lunch after church. That’s not a typical weekend expenditure for us, but it was fun outing, and it’s okay to stretch the budget a little every now and then, right? Then it was time to go meet up with some other friends to have our annual family Christmas card photo taken. Our friends are a husband and wife team of talented photographers who have been able to draw out some cool “album cover” photos of us over the years (credit goes, too, to the Rev. Mum, Diva and Tiger Lilly for being so photogenic). New this year to our group is The One Who Came to Stay, or, as I’ll refer to her on this blog, “Bonita”. You can see she’s a good fit.

Afterwards the kids all went home to bake cookies … awww, how sweet! That is, until the stove died during the first batch. We think it’s really dead, too, but it’s been a good stove for a long time; it was in the house when we moved in nine years ago and has an older look and style to it. We’ll be searching out replacements this week, which isn’t exactly something we look forward to spending time and money on. Still, we’re not discouraged. We are, and have been, very blessed. Though there have been times in our marriage when suddenly having to replace a stove (and buy new tires) would have dampened our weekend considerably, and when going out to Dairy Queen was a treat we allowed ourselves only after carefully counting out the nickels and dimes we had between us, we appreciate the favor we’ve had with God and with man even then. God has blessed us so we can bless others; even if I end up rubbing my neck and writing a check this week, I am grateful that I have the means to do so, and certain that the new tires will get me to the places where God needs me to be, and the new stove will feed those who need a hot meal, or even something more.

We’re an American Wisconsin Band!

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Hazing, booze, sex led to Wisconsin band probation

Head-shaving, semi-nude dancing, girl-on-girl kissing required to use the bathroom … well, it is the Vikings bye-week.

Wait, this was a bus, not a boat? What would Wellstone do?

Heart of Darkness?

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Port McClellan, via Drudge, links today to a nighttime satellite photo of North and South Korea that is, well, night and day.

The article featuring the photo is from the Daily Mail of London, not exactly the New York Times of credibility (though the NYT isn’t exactly the NYT of credibility any more, either). The story begins:

North Korea might now have The Bomb, but it doesn’t have much electricity

As the world grapples with how to rein in the “axis of evil” state which this week conducted a nuclear test, this spectacular satellite photo unveiled yesterday by US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld shows in stark detail the haves and have-nots of the Korean peninsula.

The regime in the north is so short of electricity that the whole country is switched off at 9 p.m. – apart from the capital of Pyongyang where dictator Kim Jong-il and his cohorts live in relative luxury. But even there, lighting is drastically reduced.

The result, as shown in this picture taken one night earlier this week, is a startling contrast between the blacked-out north and the south, which is ablaze with light, particularly around major cities and the capital, Seoul, in the north-west of the country.

Mr Rumsfeld showed the picture to illustrate how backward the northern regime really is – and how oppressed its people are. Without electricity there can be none of the appliances that make life easy and that we take for granted, he said.

A Hoax?

While the photo is illuminating, the absolute darkness in North Korea outside of Pyongyang is almost too absolute. Then there were some things in the Mail article that kind of tweaked my antenna. Reading over it again, I couldn’t find any reference to just where Secretary Rumsfeld was and who he was talking to “yesterday” when he showed that photo.

Could it be a hoax? It’s easy to be alert to fake or misleading information coming from the left, and in fact this skepticism has had to become standard procedure. I hope, however, that I can be as sensitive to similar bad vibes even if the pictures or news line up with my own expectations or world view. A lie is a lie, whether “left” or “right”; in fact I’d be even more outraged if I discovered a lie that was from “my side”. The truth is sufficient for our arguments.

Therefore I did a little checking. I couldn’t find anything about a similar speech by Secretary Rumsfeld on the CNN, Fox or Snopes sites (or anything about “Rumsfeld North Korea Satellite Image”), but a Google search did turn up a presentation he gave that included this satellite imagery — on December 23, 2002, linked on GlobalSecurity.org.

It appears the image is authentic, even if the latest reporting is suspect. I’m glad I took the time to poke around a bit before passing it on.

As for the conditions the people of North Korea are living under, I suggest that the not give up on Kim Jong Il just yet. He is showing that he won’t rest until his whole country is glowing in the dark. (But that’s just my opinion).

Bogus? Is that you?

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He’s back. (And here and here.)

Or maybe not.

Doug’s been away so long it’s almost kind of hard to remember his style. The new posts are very good, so they could easily be from Doug. But there seems to me be a bit of, oh, Tucci-ness to them, too. That guy gets around the MOB quite a bit (keep your doors locked, people), but he’s mostly been associated with a certain group that’s been known to play a good-natured blogging prank or two.

I’m hoping it’s the real deal. Welcome back, Big Fella.

Shiver

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The weather is a tease. She blows in my ear but I know that before long she’ll slap my face. This morning is “brisk” and “crisp.” I stepped outside in my shirtsleeves to get the newspaper and saw the first frost on the ground and felt the pleasant half-shiver as the cold finger ran playfully up my spine.

Walking across Hennepin Avenue later my long leather jacket felt good across my shoulders as the puffs of my breath in front of me said, “You’re alive!” Dry leaves scratched across the pavement beside me, running before the inevitable. For today, though, it is at bay and the hot cup of coffee feels good in my hands.

You magnificent bitch.