Unlimited spending tops unlimited revenue

The sulfur Hugo Chavez said he was smelling recently was most likely coming from the burn rate of his country’s prodigious spending, which is outpacing even the vast oil reserves of Venezuela. From the Wall Street Journal (subscription required for full story):

Venezuela Has Deficit As Chávez’s Spending Outpaces Oil Gains
By RAUL GALLEGOS
October 10, 2006; Page A6

CARACAS, Venezuela — Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez’s spending has exceeded his government’s gains from oil sales this year, resulting in a deficit that many believe will grow in coming months. The Andean country’s accumulated deficit stood at 4.9 trillion bolivars ($2.28 billion) at the end of July, according to the latest central-bank figures.

Venezuela’s oil industry accounts for about one-third of gross domestic product and one-half of government revenue. “We expect to see a deficit of $7.7 billion this year,” or 4.3% of gross domestic product, said Andreas Faust, an economist at Banco Mercantil in Caracas.

Mr. Chávez has continued to fund popular social programs that include free health care, education and subsidized food, as he seeks another six-year term in office in December elections. He has raised salaries of state workers, continues to fund state enterprises and gives soft loans to favored industries. Many analysts expect total spending to surpass 120 trillion bolivars or almost 40% of GDP by year’s end.

State spending has pushed up prices for goods and services, resulting in 12.5% inflation as of September.

Maybe Chávez is racing his North Korean friend with the mushroom-cloud hair to see who can run their country into the ground first.

Let’s hear it for the Boy

I work for a company in the risk assessment business. There are elements of our business who take more than a casual interest in the weather, as it can mean billions of dollars in claims and millions of dollars in capital that has to be set aside as reserves. One of our industry publications had this report today:

The climate phenomenon El Nino made an unexpected return this year, and its influence on world weather patterns could have an impact on the property/casualty insurance industry — including fewer hurricanes for the rest of the 2006 season.

El Nino is a large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate phenomenon linked to a periodic warming in sea surface temperatures across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. Steve Smith, an atmospheric physicist and senior vice president of Carvill’s ReAdvisory, said “a weak El Nino” formed about a month ago and appears to be affecting hurricane formation.

“I wouldn’t expect too many hurricanes for the rest of the season,” Smith said.

The Colorado State University-based Tropical Meteorology Project was even more blunt, lowering its tropical storm forecast to below-average activity for the rest of the season and predicting no tropical cyclone activity in November, “largely due to the rapid emergence of an El Nino event during the latter part of this summer.” Hurricane season ends Nov. 30.

“A hurricane is kind of like a heat engine in the atmosphere,” said Peter Dailey, lead meteorologist for catastrophe modeler AIR Worldwide Corp. “It can be disrupted by mixing the atmosphere. When we have an El Nino event, it tends to increase the wind shear in the Caribbean.”

So far, there have been nine named storms this season, and not one hurricane has made U.S. landfall.

Robert Hartwig, senior vice president and chief economist of the Insurance Information Institute, said El Nino’s influence on hurricane formation is “a beneficial impact.”

Ahhh, warming water means fewer hurricanes and, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the typical El Nino effect on global weather means warmer than average winter weather in western and central Canada, which translates to a warmer than average winter for western and central U.S. — including our own Minnesota. Maybe I didn’t need to buy my wife the new pair of flannel lined jeans and microfleece long underwear at Cabelas for her birthday after all. Maybe I can negotiate a lower fee upfront with the guy who plows my driveway.

Of course, El Nino weather patterns also usually mean more storm activity in California and more nor’easters in the northeast. Oh, those poor blue states. I bet Karl Rove had something to do with this.

19 years ago today…

The Twins were on their way to winning their first World Series … and the Bride (not yet the Reverend Mother) and I were on our way to 19 consecutive winning seasons, with good prospects for many more and a great farm system producing future champions. I’m even happier today than I look in this picture. Looking back I can honestly say I’d do it all again the same way … except for the photo, and those glasses.

Where does the weekend go, and what does it do when it gets there?

I was supposed to take the canvas awnings off the house over the weekend so they can be stored for the winter. It was sunny and warm on Saturday, which would have made for ideal conditions — except for the 20-25 mph wind gusts. My family says I worry too much about things, but if I do it’s because I have a good imagination that makes it easy to envision worst-case scenarios taking place before my eyes. So, take stiff winds, a 40-foot extension ladder, large canvas surface areas and my own natural grace that has put me on the losing side of disputes with gravity many times and I had no trouble picturing myself doing a Flying Nun impersonation somewhere over my back yard. The clincher in my decision for staying earth-bound, however, was that the University of Minnesota Golden Gophers were playing football Saturday afternoon.

No, I had no desire to shirk my chores and actually watch them play against Penn State; it’s just that when the Gophers play football against ranked opponents, spectacularly bad and nearly unexplainable things happen. When such eery forces are afoot in the land it is wise not to take any unnecessary chances. In recent years the Gophs have found ways to blow a three-touchdown lead in the last 8 minutes of a game, snatch defeat from the jaws of certain victory with a botched punt and many other comical indignities I’ve tried to repress. This time they scored a touchdown in overtime and missed the extra point. Then, just when they had turned Penn State away with a fourth-down, game-winning play they get flagged for a phantom pass interference call, you knew it was going to happen again (and it did).

I did manage to get the leaves in the front yard mulched, but about half of them are still on the trees despite the winds. It’s a good feeling to get things accomplished, but I spent most of the time I was doing that thinking about another “Dad” responsibility that was coming up. We’ve just added another teenage daughter to the family for the forseeable future, to go along with the Mall Diva and the near-teen Tiger Lilly (anybody got a spare bathroom you’re not using? Can I borrow it?) It’s been an unexpected, but not unwelcome, event though it is a bit different to assume responsibility for someone just a few days short of 17 years old, especially when she comes equipped with a would-be boyfriend. The young swain was to present himself to the Reverend Mother and I for the first time Saturday afternoon for our “little talk” and I spent my leaf-collecting time pondering the proper accessories.

In the end, I decided to go without the gun or the knife, but I think I still got it across to the young man that I take this seriously, and clearly laid out my expectations and his responsibilities if he wants to have the privilege of spending time with one of mine. He listened very respectfully, and had her home only one minute late. Do you think I should also have him fill out the application? (There’ll be more about our new daughter as time goes on, but first I have to decide on a proper blog nickname for her; these things have a way of suggesting themselves, so be patient).

Saturday night the rest of us watched the movie, “My House in Umbria”, starring Maggie Smith, who was excellent. It’s a mystery movie, which we like, but it had the added appeal of being set on location in the Italian countryside. Umbria looked very much like Tuscany where we were back in May, and we were all wistful at the views of the scenery and the house and the garden. I liked the movie a lot, but the girls weren’t as impressed. I thought it was an interesting movie with a twist on the mystery genre in the way it went about unveiling its clues at a leisurely, sun-washed pace.

Sunday morning we made our usual preparations for church and we even got home in time for the kick-off of the Vikings game. I’m getting pretty frustrated with the Vikings offense. It’s supposed to be some version of the West Coast Offense, but it looks more like a “Let’s Coast” offense. When you hear “West Coast” you think sunshine, sporty convertibles, tanned blondes who wink at you and a diverse, high-powered style of offensive football that combines the power and grace of surfing. The Viking’s version is more like ice-fishing. In Cleveland. In February. While you’re sitting on a plastic bucket. The problem as I see it is that the defense knows the quarterback can’t get the ball deep without it hanging up there like a pinata, so they cheat up and crowd the passing lanes, making it even harder to complete the short passes. It’s boring, turgid and as predictable as Brad Johnson throwing the ball five yards on third and nine. Thankfully the defense is awesome this year, and it actually outscored their offensive counterparts this week as the Vikings defeated a Minnesota coach’s best hope for job security: the Detroit Lions.

When our golfing partners cancelled on us later in the afternoon I got a chance to flash back to the good old days of Denny Green clock management by watching the Cardinals-Chiefs game on one channel while also monitoring the over-hyped return of Terrell Owens to Philadelphia as the Eagles hosted the Cowboys. If there’s anything I enjoy in sports — even more than watching Phil Mickelson kack up a big lead or having the Yankees bounced from the play-offs early — it’s seeing Terrell Owens get his feelings hurt. Ahhh, it was a good day. Time to kick back and reflect and enjoy the evening — oh, hey, don’t I have a blog?

Challenging Word of the Week: billingsgate

Billingsgate (BIL ingz gate)
noun

Billingsgate is foul and abusive language, coarse invective. The word comes from Billingsgate, London, for hundreds of years the site and name of a fish market where fish sellers and porters were notorious for their foul, coarse language. The market was near a gate in the old city wall named after a property owner, Billings. To talk billingsgate (sometimes capitalized) is to indulge in vituperation and vilification. The women who worked there were particularly offensive; from the Middle English fisshwyf we get fishwife, a term applied to coarse, vituperative, foul-tongued women who belie the traditional gentility of their sex. These lines appear in The Plain Dealer, a play by the English poet and dramatist William Wycherley (c. 1640-1716):

QUAINT: With sharp invectives—
WIDOW: Alias, Billingsgate.

My example: Rosie O’Donnell’s billingsgate tendencies have been on view since she joined “The View.”

From the book, “1000 Most Challenging Words” by Norman W. Schur, ©1987 by the Ballantine Reference Library, Random House. I post a weekly “Challenging Words” definition to call more attention to this delightful book and to promote interesting word usage in the blogosphere. I challenge other bloggers to work the current word into a post sometime in the coming week. If you manage to do so, please leave a comment or a link to where I can find it. Previous words in this series can be found under the appropriate Category heading in the right-hand sidebar.

It’s That Time Again!

Yes, it’s that beautiful time of year; with leaves changing colors and the air getting colder*…

Time to break out the wrist sweaters!

This is the very last of the 899 pictures we took in Europe. We were at the airport to go home, and my carry-on luggage was so stuffed that I couldn’t fit my wrist sweaters anywhere, so I had to wear them.

*The air is supposed to be getting colder, right? Though I personally am not opposed to 70 and 80 degree weather for fall…
My mom and I support global warming!

Road hazards

Buffy Holt from plain simple english is back stateside for awhile, which means having to re-test for her driver’s license. Her account of taking this exam under the supervision of an examiner who looked like John Coffey from The Green Mile is here. Her story reminded me of the many stresses that accompanied my driver’s training.

Way back in the day I took my driver’s ed training through a 6-week program at my high school. There’s probably a book and a half worth of material right there, but one thing I especially remember is a question on the final written exam: What is the most dangerous animal to hit when driving?

You know, I’m sure I never saw that covered in the text book or heard it in the lecture portions, unless it was slipped into those horrendous road accident movies they showed to freak you out, in which case I no doubt blocked it from my mind. Anyway, I gave it about two more seconds of thought and wrote “Rogue Elephant” and moved on.

Turns out I was wrong, but I had enough points to pass the test anyway. According to the instructor the correct answer was “hog” as its low center of gravity can flip your car. I’ve seen some pretty fat squirrels on the road (who’s center of gravity got progressively lower) but I’ve never seen a hog on the road, dead or alive. You can be sure that if I ever do, however, I’m pulling a bootlegger turn (definitely not taught in class) and going the other direction as fast as I can just to be safe. I don’t know what I’d do if I had to choose between hitting a hog, an elephant or driving into a ditch full of alligators.

Sometimes I’ve wondered since then: do you think they perhaps gave me the written test for Arkansas by mistake?

The paragraphs above were the gist of a comment I left for Buffy. I ran them here as well for fun and maximum “mileage”, and because it gave me a good excuse to run this picture of the girls again:

All is well

More posting soon. I’m working on a piece that started with a Nick Coleman column over a week ago and keeps expanding; I hope to get it organized very soon. Simultaneously, the entire family has been involved in a situation that has been very intense and absorbing. Everyone has played a part and I have to admit to a little surprise, and not a little pride, at the spirit and composure of the Diva and Tiger Lilly in all of this. We are so blessed. Then again, maybe I shouldn’t be surprised at all.

We’re all fine, healthy and happy but it is a situation that certainly makes me appreciate the things we so easily take for granted. I don’t know that I’ll ever be able to blog about it directly, but it is certainly giving me some deeper insights that will no doubt be reflected in future writings.

And those will resume shortly, I promise.

Shock and Aw, Shucks

The 1987 Twins surprised me, and that was hard to do. Since ’82 I’d worked as a scoreboard operator at the Metrodome and had seen some fairly mystical things. Things such as a Dave Kingman foul ball literally getting lost in the roof, catcher Dave Engle forgetting how to throw the ball back to the pitcher, and Mickey Hatcher playing the outfield. The bulging, striped Teflon sky had made the Dome seem like our own surreal patch where we had waited each year for the Great Pumpkin, Godot and blue-chip pitching prospects Jeff Bumgarner and Steve Gasser. None of whom ever arrived.

When ’87 rolled around my passions had expanded to include the future Reverend Mother and we started looking around for a wedding date. October 10 looked to be a pretty safe choice. My wedding to Marjorie wasn’t to be the only astounding miracle in Minnesota that fall, however. The Twins snuck into the playoffs with 85 wins, and my friends kept sneaking out of our afternoon wedding reception to try and catch the score of the Twins/Tigers ALCS game from Detroit. (If McFly had come back from the future and shown up at the church in the De Lorean we wouldn’t have been impressed with the car, but we’d definitely have wanted to know more about those cell phones and Internet thingies he was talking about — and who to put our money on, of course, though we probably still wouldn’t have believed it). I didn’t mind my friends’ absence because they were relaying the scores to me while I was stuck cutting cake and grinning until my ears nearly fell off. My bride and I ended up honeymooning through the rest of the ALCS and the first games of the World Series, but I made it back to my Dome job in time for Game 6.

That ’87 team was the most surprising ever for me — until this year. This year began as if we’d all crammed into the De Lorean for a trip back to the early 80s as the team tried to patch together something that might look respectable from a collection of not-ready-yet youngsters and used-up veterans in the handy four-pack size. The left side of the infield had the look and range of Mount Rushmore, and the “professional hitters” that had been added to the squad were as stiff as the Tin Man stepping out of the whirlpool. The results were about as pretty as the floor of the Twins dugout after a game, the spit-out sunflower seed husks commingling with tobacco juice in fetid puddles. Gross, yes, so you tried not to think about them, though the stench was strong.

Desperate plans are sometimes the best ones, though, so when the decision was made in June to stack the deadwood out of the way and bring in the frisky youngsters things began to look up. Manager Ron Gardenhire installed Nick Punto into the lineup, even though the most noise he’d made in the majors up until that time was the sound of his hamstrings twanging or his bones cracking. Gardy put him out there at third and asked him to try not and sprain anything until he could find a replacement. Then they brought up Jason Bartlett from the minors, the kid who’d been thought to be not assertive enough in spring training, to play shortstop — and barely took him out of the lineup the rest of the season. Suddenly balls that were passing through the left side of the infield like it was the U.S.-Mexico border were being caught and redirected to Canada, or at least toward Canadian first baseman Justin Morneau. Perhaps being able to see more balls thrown at him in the field sharpened Morneau’s eye-hand coordination because right about that time he started smashing balls hither and yon at the plate, while Johann Santana and Francisco Liriano began to compete with each other to find the most humiliating ways to make opposing batters take their seats. Meanwhile the young catcher, Joe Mauer, kept stringing together more hits than sentences and the team won 19 of 20 games — and failed to gain ground on the Tigers and White Sox ahead of them.

Well, we thought that was interesting, and that it bode well for next year, but someone had sent the future by Fed Ex and they were looking for somebody to sign for it. The Twins kept up the pace and gradually started to draw closer to the leaders bit by bit. Of course, they were still too far back to even be considered for a wild card spot with the Chi-town and Detroit, and with former Twin Big Papi in Boston plucking a hair out of Twins GM Terry Ryan’s head with every homerun he hit because the Bosox liked him to go yahhd and didn’t care if he used his glove for a doily. Surely the Twins weren’t even going to get a sniff of either of these Sox for the Wild Card, and yet they kept coming. Somewhere up ahead Jim Leyland and Ozzie Guillen were like Butch and Sundance, squinting back into the distance and asking, “Who are those guys?” who kept chasing them no matter what tricks they played or how they tried to run and hide. Then Torii got hurt, and Radke and Liriano, and each time we thought, “Well, that does it, but it was a great run…and wait until next year.” But nothing seemed to throw the Twins off stride. They kept eating at the difference and the teams ahead of them started to choke, their hands so tightly around their necks that they couldn’t adjust their cups at the plate.

First the Red Sox and then the White Sox fell into the wringer and were hung out to dry, and amazingly the Twins were guaranteed a play-off spot with a week left in the season. Sublime, but still not enough and on the last day of the season they won one last game and then sat with their fans inside the suddenly cozy Metrodome and watched the big color scoreboards as the even more unlikely Royals defeated the Tigers in extra innings, putting the Twins all alone in first place in the AL Central Division for the first time all season, nearly one hour after their regular season had ended.

Now it’s onto the playoffs and the unknown players aren’t so unknown anymore. They’ve got the AL batting champ, the probable Cy Young winner, a serious league MVP candidate, the veteran Gold Glove centerfielder showing new-found power and poise in the clutch and, if there’s any justice, the Manager of the Year. They’ve also got a #2 starter named Boof, a game three starter with a torn labrum and stress fracture in his shoulder and a game four starter who sometimes acts like he’s got a stress fracture of the brain.

I’m not betting against them.

Challenging Word of the Week: abjure

Abjure
(ab JOOHR) verb

To abjure something is to renounce it, retract, repudiate, forswear it. Abjure comes from the Latin verb abjurare (to deny under oath); abjuration from Late Latin abjuratio (recantation); both are based on ab- (away) plus jurare (to swear). Reformed sinners abjure the errors of their ways. A number of American communists abjured their allegiance to the Communist Party and informed on their former colleagues. The noun abjuration (abjoo RAY shuhn) implies renunciation upon oath, or at least some measure of solemnity and formality, something more than a mere change of mind. Born-again Christians abjure their former unbelief. The English poet John Donne (1572-1631) wrote:

The heavens rejoice in moiion, why should I
Abjure my so much loved variety

In Paradise Lost, the English poet John Milton (1608-1674) says:

I waked To find her, or for ever to deplore
Her loss, and other pleasures all abjure.

My example: The Minnesota Twins abjured the lousy baseball they played in April and June and came back to win the American League Central Division title on the last day of the season.

From the book, “1000 Most Challenging Words” by Norman W. Schur, ©1987 by the Ballantine Reference Library, Random House. I post a weekly “Challenging Words” definition to call more attention to this delightful book and to promote interesting word usage in the blogosphere. I challenge other bloggers to work the current word into a post sometime in the coming week. If you manage to do so, please leave a comment or a link to where I can find it. Previous words in this series can be found under the appropriate Category heading in the right-hand sidebar.