Unknown concentrations of risk


Photo by John Stewart, May, 2001.

I was driving across the Lafayette Bridge on my way to work five years ago when I turned on my radio to catch the scores and instead heard the national news anchors and reporters describing how an airplane had crashed into one of the World Trade Center towers. Details were sketchy, they were trying to find out more, they didn’t know what kind of plane it was for certain, the atmosphere was reminiscent of the ’93 truck bombing in the WTC parking ramp…and then a reporter said, “My God, something has hit the other tower!”

When I got to work a crowd of my co-workers were cycling through our largest conference room, trying to watch a portable 6-inch black and white tv screen that was the only thing we had capable of pulling in a signal. Like the rest of the country we desperately wanted to know what was going on, what was going to happen, and how bad was it. We also had a very pressing, personal need to get a handle on what was happening.

I work for a large global financial services company. The division I’m in is a very small part of that empire, and we deal in rather esoteric product lines that are unnoticed by most consumers. Essentially, we provide insurance to insurance companies to help them limit catastrophic losses, and on that day an important part of our business included backstopping workers’ compensation plans. Additionally, much of our business is placed by brokerage companies and many of these had offices in the two towers. There were a lot of personal and business contacts concentrated in those buildings, many of whom had become friends with our employees. As the horror of the day continued to mount, we were also starting to realize that these friends and contacts also fell into another category: they were our insureds. One of our people, staring woodenly at the tiny monitor, asked aloud, “How many insured lives do we have in those buildings?” Someone from the work comp line said, weakly, “I don’t know, but it has got to be a lot.”

Already, company headquarters in Europe was in touch with our local leadership, wanting to know what the potential claims might be because they were being pressured by investment analysts to release a report as quickly as possible. The fact was, because of the nature of the business and the tools that were available at the time, we had almost no way of knowing what the impact might be. We knew what insurance companies were our clients, of course, but didn’t know much about what companies they were insuring, let alone where those insureds might actually work. It’s what our industry refers to as “unknown concentrations of risk.” With limited data, working by guess and by gut, overnight we provided a chilling estimate roughly equal to our division’s expected earnings for the year. Ultimately, we’d be wrong by about a factor of eight — and on the low side.

We also had about a dozen of our people traveling around the country that day, many of them on the East Coast. We couldn’t reach them, their respective staffs were digging up their itineraries, trying to cross-reference them with what details were available through the media, and trying to reassure family members calling in with the inevitable, desperate question…”Do you know what flight so-and-so was supposed to be on?” Thankfully, by the end of the day, everyone was safely accounted for, though with some interesting stories to tell. One of our guys was bound for Detroit and his flight was redirected to the K.I. Sawyer Air Force base in Michigan. Of course, he knew nothing about what was going on, and looking out the window as they landed he thought that it sure didn’t look anything like any airport he’d ever landed at before. With the airlines grounded he and our other employees in similar circumstances had to piece together arrangements for getting home. Inconvenient, sure, but nothing like the desperate days ahead for the families of the missing – and for our business as the full impact of the day’s events began to emerge.

Within the next two months the corporate decision was made that we would no longer take on risks for business with “unknown concentrations”. The work comp area was especially susceptible to this type of business, and that unit was shut down by the end of the year, sucking that group of my friends and co-workers into the economic downturn that was gathering momentum. In January of 2002 I walked through the part of our offices where they had been and the empty chairs and cubes were yet another symbolic reminder that the “missing” from 9/11 extended far beyond the borders of New York City. At least my friends were still alive even if they had been cut loose into a world that had been shaken to othe point where none of us could predict what it would look like in five years.

Ironically, several months before 9/11 some of our brightest folks had already started looking at what ways and tools could be used to pinpoint insurance risk on a real-time basis. It wasn’t an exactly unknown concept, but the amount of data gathering that would have to be done was considered to be too prohibitive. It was thought that no insurance company would be willing to provide that kind of information even if they had a way to collect it. In one day, however, people realized they had to think differently, and obviously not just in the insurance business. My company in general, and my division in particular, rebounded in the coming years. We implemented the tools and techniques once thought to be too complicated and unwieldy and they are now a fact of life throughout our industry.

9/11 was a day when many things once thought to be impossible suddenly became possible. My division, my company, my industry, my country … we all began to look at things differently, and to learn from the experience. I think that at the level of my business, we’ve learned from these hard lessons and applied them. The scars of that day are still sobering reminders that direct our thinking and plans for the future; we will never again think like we did on September 10, 2001. Sadly, on the political level those lessons appeared to have been cleared away like the rubble from Ground Zero and the field has been left open once again for political gamesmanship and maneuvering while altogether too many people forget that the ultimate score isn’t being kept by political points. The unknown concentrations of risk are still out there.

Challenging Word of the Week: ukase



Ukase

(YOOH kase, yooh KAZE) noun



Originally, in imperial Russia, a ukase was an order or edict handed down by the Czar, which automatically acquired the force of law, but the term has now come to denote any preemptory proclamation issued by an absolute or arbitrary authority without right of appeal. The use of the term need not be confined to duly constituted government authorities. It can be said that certain party bosses never make suggestions or call for them; they simply hand out ukases. Hollywood moguls, old style, operated by ukase. We took the word from the French, who based it on Russian ukaz*.



My example: Bill Clinton and the leadership of the Democratic Party issued a ukase to Disney and ABC last week (see also this).



Is it really so surprising that the freedom-loving left — so admiring of the repressive regimes of Castro and Chavez and concerned that the rights of non-citizen terrorists are being infringed — can’t wait to apply the same techniques here at home? They can’t even wait to see if they’ll come into power first, because in their own minds they’ve never been out of power.



* From the book, “1000 Most Challenging Words” by Norman W. Schur, ©1987 by the Ballantine Reference Library, Random House. I post a weekly “Challenging Words” definition to call more attention to this delightful book and to promote interesting word usage in the blogosphere. I challenge other bloggers to work the current word into a post sometime in the coming week. If you manage to do so, please leave a comment or a link to where I can find it. Previous words in this series can be found under the appropriate Category heading in the right-hand sidebar.

We Like to Party!

We made an appearance at the MOB party, my father, mother and I. We brought along a member of my (very) extended family for her debut into MOB society (such as it is). Yes, Princess Flickerfeather came, saw, and even claims she had fun! Yay! I’m going to bring her along to trivia some time, I’m sure she’ll kick butt.

We had oodles of fun hanging out with our old peeps like Surly Dave and his Sweeter Half, Stromy and Margaret, and Benny; and I got to meet some new people: Cathy from Cake Eater Chronicles (she’s new to me, anyway), King David and Mocha-momma from the Far Wright (and yes, that name will follow you wherever you go), Andy from Echo Zoe, and one Joe Tucci.

At one point the Princess and I were sitting outside and a guy walks up and says “Hey, Mall Diva! Isn’t it creepy how I’ve been reading your blog all summer and know everything about you, but you don’t know who I am?” I replied that yes, that was creepy and inquired who he was. It was kind of…interesting… to meet Drjonz.

I was sad that Cathy in the Wright didn’t make it, but I guess she was up to her own shenanigans.

All in all, we had a good time.

(You missed out, Kevi.)

Another 9/11 conspiracy?

There appears to be a booming market in 9/11 conspiracy theories, especially among academics nestled into their home-made Skinner boxes, toggling their BDS* gratification buttons. Meanwhile a much more brazen attack on free-speech is carried out by Harry Reid, Chuck Schumer, Byron Dorgan and Dick Durbin (leaders of the Party-Not-In-Power) who not only threatened the broadcasting license of Disney (parent company of ABC) if it didn’t cancel or alter its broadcast of “The Road to 9-11”, but were even willing to put it in writing. ABC, btw, has complied. I’m waiting for Tim “There’s a Chill Wind Blowing Through Our Nation” Robbins to jump up and say, “See! I told you so!” (HT: Hugh Hewitt)

Something else that caught my attention earlier this week, however, is the decision by certain CBS affiliates not to rebroadcast the “9/11” documentary because they’re supposedly afraid the coarse language will cause them to be fined by the FCC. This is the award-winning documentary by the two French brothers who were making a film about the experiences of a rookie New York City firefighter and in the process ended up in the front lines of the action that horrible day. As such, the film captured the blunt and passionate responses and language of the firefighters on the scene, as well as the sounds of bodies hitting the roof of the plaza outside the lobby of Tower One where the firefighters had set up a command post. CBS has already broadcast this at least twice (that I’m aware of) in the past without controversy. Those broadcasts were before the 2004 Janet Jackson Super Bowl scandal, which led the FCC to increase fines for broadcasters that allow offensive content to go out over the air.

Several dozen CBS affiliates have decided to either replace the documentary or delay its broadcast until after 10 p.m., when the Federal Communications Commission loosens restrictions — even though the film has already aired twice with little controversy.

“This is example No. 1” of the chilling effect over concerns about profanity, said Martin Franks, executive vice president of CBS Corp.

Hey — there’s that “chilling” word again! Apparently Mr. Franks wouldn’t dream of bleeping out or aurally pixillating the bad words. I’m very familiar with this documentary having watched its original broadcast and taping the replay a year later. I recently viewed it again when I showed it to the group of young men in my “Fundamentals in Film” class. This close to the fall elections I think CBS – the network of Dan Rather, Mary Mapes and “fake but accurate” standards — is really more concerned about stirring the passions of the public than with offending its morals. I also think the network can’t resist the opportunity to gig the FCC and the current administration over the heavy-handed federal sanctions.

I think the language CBS is most concerned about is the part at the end when young Tony, the rookie firefighter, tells the camera, “I’d much rather save lives than take lives, but after this, if my country wants to send me to fight then I’ll go.”

* Bush Derangement Syndrome

No, no … you stick it in your ear

Talk about putting a call on hold:

(AP) Cell phones found inside four prisoners

The prisoners are gang-members in El Salvador. According to the article,

Capt. Juan Ramon Arevalo, director of the prison known as Zacatras, said the gang members had introduced the cell phones, wrapped in plastic bags, into their bodies through their…

Well, there are only so many ways to get contraband into prison, so you figure it out. Let’s just say the “vibrate” ring-tone setting may have been problematic. Man, talk about your “anywhere” minutes!

I guess that really makes them “cell” phones, though. Can’t you just picture a prisoner’s friend getting a call at 2:00 a.m. and saying, “What ******* is calling me at this hour?”

On ordaining women

This is a post I have written in response to one written by Dave Christison which you can read here, with a follow up here. Dave did a great job in pointing out many questions that arise when considering this issue of whether women can and should be elders in a church or ordained as pastors. He even phoned me after I left a comment on his post and we had a wonderful conversation, and I was greatly encouraged to respond to his post by writing this.

I am very sensitive of the fact that this can be a heated issue, and as a long-time elder and recently ordained pastor in my church I obviously have strong feelings of my own. More important than feelings, however, is what the Word of God says, and I believe scripture is fully consistent with this calling. In fact, the church I attend is very conservative in reading, interpreting and applying God’s word in our lives. Our practice of ordaining men and women who are called is based on this word and not on worldly notions of what is “fair” or politically correct. Yet if scripture is our guide, aren’t there verses (especially in 2 Timothy and I Corinthians 11 and 14) that clearly take a contrary position?

The short answer is no. Even better, the longer answer doesn’t require a lot of linguistic gymnastics or stretched rationalizations. In order to make this more interesting and enlightening I will rely heavily on a small tome that was given to me by sister at my ordination last December. The author puts it clearly and succinctly, in a way I could hardly hope to. The book is entitled Ordaining Women, by Rev. B.T. Roberts, A.M., written in 1891 (yes, that was 1891), well before what might be recognized as secular feminism. The book does an excellent job of presenting the biblical case for women in leadership.

I see Badmoud rising

We had our annual fantasy football draft last night and despite having a bad draft position I think my team, Badmoud Ahmadinutjob, came out of it in pretty good shape. I chose that team name, by the way, for a couple of reasons: 1) most of the teams in my league don’t even bother to come up with a team name and just go by the name of the team owner (boring) so maybe I’ll just go by a first and last name as well, and 2) team names typically imply fierceness and intimidation and I thought this was a great way to keep my opponents off-balance and ineffective while I went about achieving my own objectives. Right now I’d have to say my strategy worked (and Mike Wallace assures us that the real Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is really a wonderful guy and probably won’t be offended).

Of course my strategy wasn’t as simple as selecting a team name. I also kept buying beers for the hot-head owner in our league who was sitting next to me, while I whispered to him some of the things a couple of the other owners across the table from him were saying about his draft. Believe me, the ensuing tensions distracted at least three teams while I scored scud, I mean, stud after stud for my team (which I formerly named “Weapons of Mass Distraction”). Whenever someone thought he knew what I was up to and called me on it I just said, “Who, me?” as innocently as I could muster. Then I’d turn around and proclaim death for the (Detroit) Lionists at the table (which didn’t stop me from drafting Roy Williams, however).

Oh sure, there was the usual ineffectual talk about “league sanctions” but I knew no one was going to do anything as long as I had control of the plate of chicken wings. Whenever things got too dicey I’d suggest that I might be willing to discuss passing a few wings around the table. Even at that things did finally begin to get a little rowdy and the bar owner threatened to call the police to act as a peace-keepers, but I know half those guys on the force and they’re not going to hassle me.

All in all it was a great night and an important step as we make our way toward the main event — the play-offs. I can’t wait!

Btw, here’s my lineup for you fantasy football fans out there (I know the non-fans quit reading this post a couple of paragraphs ago). In a 10-team league I picked, in order of selection:

Peyton Manning, IND
Willie Parker, PIT
Anquan Boldin, AZ
Roy Williams, DET
Thomas Jones, CHI
Tatum Bell, DEN
Javon Walker, DEN
Laurence Maroney, NE
Brandon Jacobs, NYG
Greg Jennings, NYG
Cedric Benson, CHI
Reggie Brown, PHI
Josh Brown, SEA

I know, by picking Tatum Bell and Laurence Maroney I’ve subjected myself to a season’s worth of mind-games from their coaches, Mike Shanahan and Bill Belichek, but what can I say? Bill and Mike are the masters of misdirection, and the official heroes of Badmoud Ahmadinutjob! Game on!

Children of the Night: The Fairest of them all

MD: Hi guys! Y’all are in for a special treat today, even though its not on a stick. Co-blogging! Yes, that’s right, the Mall Diva and Tiger Lilly are getting together to share with you the delights of our fair state’s fair.

TL: Hello, everyone.

MD: There will be food blogging, as I took pictures of almost everything that we ate, and sometimes of what other people were eating.

TL: The most pictures she took were of people eating roasted corn.

MD: I did not!

TL: Did too!

MD: *Rolls eyes* Anyway —-

TL: We also went on rides. We went on the Zipper, which is this ride that goes upside down and around and around. I kept my eyes closed almost the whole time, and when I made the mistake of opening them, we were rushing toward the ground — face first! I screamed my head off and vowed that I would never go on that ride again. I think my sister is deaf now.

MD: Huh?

TL: I’m going on it again next year.

MD: We (including the Rev. Mum) went on the Scrambler. All three of us. In one cart. I am never doing that again. I sustained a severely bruised arm and a couple of cracked ribs.

MD: In one of the barns we got our handwriting analyzed. We wrote our names on these little cards that they popped in the machine. The machine popped them back out again and told us what we were like. Our results were eerily accurate. Did you know that friendliness is my greatest asset?

TL: Yeah, right. Mine says that I’m romantic.

MD: Yeah, right. Well, I am naturally quick, keen and optimistic, and my opinions are respected, so there!

TL: Oh, yeah? Well I am very observant and take in all that’s happening around me.

MD: Look! A chicken!

TL: Where?? Hey, that’s not nice! Remember, I am also sensitive and easily hurt by criticism; but I never give up and don’t like things to get the better of me.

MD: I am always ready for self-sacrifice.

TL: I am bored by routine and enjoy the unexpected.

MD: So you’re routinely bored?

TL: ???

MD: Here’s a good one:

TL: Nice. Like you’ve never eaten a fried candy bar!

We went to the animal barns. There was something missing. THERE WERE NO BUNNIES!!! NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

MD: Oh, get over it. You made friends with the loud sheep, remember?

TL: Oh, yeah.

MD: We found our favoritest thing to eat in the whole wide world. It was even more expensive here than in Italy! “Gelato, Poppi!”

TL: This little kid is in training to be the Hulk.

MD: That was so cute.

TL: Hey, sheep in leotards — they must be ballerinas.

MD: They never danced for us, though.

MD: Guess what? We also saw triple_a wandering around. I don’t think he recognized us, though. I think he was keeping track of all the political candidates, like this one:


(Vote for me!)

MD: Well that’s all the time we have for today! I hope you enjoyed your virtual trip to the Fair!

TL: Ciao for now!

Back in the desk chair again

That was refreshing! Taking a month off from blogging (or at least from daily blogging) was a great break and I’m feeling all bubbly and tingly — or maybe that’s just because I used my wife’s shampoo this morning.

Anyway, I’m looking forward to getting back in my rhythm and I’ve got a few story ideas and links that I’ve stashed while I was away that I’ll probably be getting into in the next few days. Of course, I noted that I wasn’t the only blogger taking time off and I laughed outloud last week when I got my copy of the Wall Street Journal and saw an article about bloggers on vacation (subscription required to read the link, sorry). The story talked about how the big name bloggers such as Michelle Malkin and Andrew Sullivan handled their vacations and the overall drop in readership despite lining up distinguished guest bloggers to keep the blog lamps lit. It appears that many readers have a distinct affinity for the person who’s name is on the blog and they may tend to visit less often when that person isn’t writing.

This interesting information leaves me feeling a bit odd, considering my experience. Of course, I have little in common with Malkin, Reynolds, Sullivan, Hewitt, Jarvis, et al, when it comes to the blogosphere. We all blog, but I’m a grunion to their whales even though we swim in the same sea. For example, their readership dropped by tens of thousands of visitors per day while they were gone; I can just barely say I’ve had tens of thousands of visitors stop by here in total in the 18 months since I put out my electronic “welcome” sign. Perhaps some of the uber-bloggers’ wayward readers were coming over here in August because my average daily visitors actually went — er, uh — up while I was on vacation. When I kicked back, I was averaging close to 80 visitors a day. That was great, and a heady change from the days when breaking into the 30s was cause for a celebration. Now, a month after leaving this blog largely in the hands of my daughters the Mall Diva and Tiger Lilly, the daily average is nearly 100 visitors (and now the Reverend Mother is about to make her much anticipated debut as well)!

Ooooo-kay. This is good news, right? But how long before they start lobbying for a change in the name of this blog? This makes for an interesting problem for me, and hopefully, more interesting reading for you.

Oh well, the family that blogs together … uh, fights over the computer.