Biofuel me once, shame on you…

Don’t like the opportunistic, economically-flawed, even counter-productive rush to biofuels? You’re not alone, though you might be surprised who shares your concerns.

Oxfam International, a social justice, anti-poverty organization has released a report condemning the EU’s biofuel mandates as not only being unproductive, but downright nasty:

EU proposals will make it mandatory by 2020 for ten per cent of all member states’ transport fuels to come from biofuels. In order to meet the substantial increase in demand, the EU will have to import biofuels made from crops like sugar cane and palm oil from developing countries. But the rush by big companies and governments in countries such as Indonesia, Colombia, Brazil, Tanzania and Malaysia to win a slice of the ‘EU biofuel pie’ threatens to force poor people from their land, destroy their livelihoods, lead to the exploitation of workers and hurt the availability and affordability of food.

“In the scramble to supply the EU and the rest of the world with biofuels, poor people are getting trampled. The EU proposals as they stand will exacerbate the problem. It is unacceptable that poor people in developing countries should bear the cost of questionable attempts to cut emissions in Europe,” said Robert Bailey from Oxfam.

Biofuels may offer the potential to reduce poverty by increasing jobs and markets for small farmers, and by providing cheap renewable energy for local use, but the huge plantations emerging to supply the EU pose more threats than opportunities for poor people. The problem will only get worse as the scramble to supply intensifies unless the EU introduces safeguards to protect land rights, livelihoods, workers rights and food security.

EU member states agreed that the ten per cent target must be reached sustainably, but Oxfam warns that the current proposals contain no standards on the social or human impact.

“The EU set its biofuel target without checking the impact on people and the environment. The EU must include safeguards to ensure that the rights and livelihoods of people in producing countries are protected. Without these, the ten per cent target should be scrapped and the EU should go back to the drawing board,” said Bailey.

“Let’s be clear, biofuels are not a panacea – even if the EU is able to reach the ten per cent target sustainably, and Oxfam doubts that it can, it will only shave a few per cent of emissions off a continually growing total.”

Published reports show that as much as 5.6 million square kilometres of land – an area more than ten times the size of France – could be in production of biofuels within 20 years in India, Brazil, Southern Africa and Indonesia alone. The UN estimates that 60 million people worldwide face clearance from their land to make way for biofuel plantations. Many end up in slums in search of work, others on the very plantations that have displaced them with poor pay, squalid conditions and no worker rights. Women workers are routinely discriminated against and often paid less then men.

You can read the entire report on Oxfam’s site. While there’s a certain amount of “World to end; women and minorities hardest hit” perspective, it’s an interesting take on an issue that many people, despite differing political views, still sense is profoundly wrong-headed.

HT: Amy Ridenour’s National Center Blog.

People who don’t live in green houses shouldn’t throw stones

From EckerNet:

Look over the descriptions of the following two houses and see if you can tell which belongs to an environmentalist:

HOUSE # 1:
A 20-room mansion (not including 8 bathrooms) heated by natural gas. Add on a pool (and a pool house) and a separate guest house all heated by gas. In ONE MONTH ALONE this mansion consumes more energy than the average American household in an ENTIRE YEAR. The average bill for electricity and natural gas runs over $2,400.00 per month. In natural gas alone (which last time we checked was a fossil fuel), this property consumes more than 20 times the national average for an American home. This house is not in a northern or Midwestern “snow belt,” either. It’s in the South.

HOUSE # 2:
Designed by an architecture professor at a leading national university, this house incorporates every “green” feature current home construction can provide. The house contains only 4,000 square feet (4 bedrooms) and is nestled on arid high prairie in the American southwest. A central closet in the house holds geothermal heat pumps drawing ground water through pipes sunk 300 feet into the ground. The water (usually 67 degrees F.) heats the house in winter and cools it in summer. The system uses no fossil fuels such as oil or natural gas, and it consumes 25% of the electricity required for a conventional heating/cooling system. Rainwater from the roof is collected and funneled into a 25,000 gallon underground cistern. Wastewater from showers, sinks and toilets goes into underground purifying tanks and then into the cistern. The collected water then irrigates the land surrounding the house. Flowers and shrubs native to the area blend the property into the surrounding rural landscape.

HOUSE # 1 (20 room energy guzzling mansion) is outside of Nashville, Tennessee. It is the abode of that renowned environmentalist (and filmmaker) Al Gore.

HOUSE # 2 (model eco-friendly house) is on a ranch near Crawford, Texas. Also known as “the Texas White House,” it is the private residence of the President of the United States, George W. Bush.

So whose house is gentler on the environment? Indeed, for Mr. Gore, it’s truly “an inconvenient truth.”

This comparison is confirmed by Snopes.

Of course, George Bush can get by with a smaller house since he’s got that roomy second residence in Washington, D.C. — which was what Al really wanted all along.

Weekend weather report

Global warming, my frosted hind foot!

It’s not so unusual to have cold weather or even snow in April for a day or two, but we usually don’t end up monitoring the windchill. The roaring winds on Friday and Saturday would slap you down and drive an icicle through your heart, not to mention the Reverend Mother’s peonies and aliums.

Ok, despite the headline and how this post starts, I’m not going to go on about what the weather was like here the past few days. If you live here you know, and if you don’t, you don’t care. But I did notice some oh, inconvenient, truths while huddling in the basement near the warm TV.

Saturday night Rev. Mom and I settled in to watch one of my favorite movies, Local Hero, which I had received as a birthday present. The movie was filmed in the 80s, and at one point a couple of scientist characters are talking about how they proved they can prevent the coming ice age by rerouting the North Atlantic Drift . Yes, 25 years ago if anyone was talking climate change it was in terms of global cooling.

After my wife retired I switched from the DVD player to highlights from the Masters. The announcers were huddled together in the Georgia night wearing stocking caps and parkas, their breath puffing in great white clouds as they talked about how the unnatural cold and high winds were making the tournament a disaster for the players and causing high scores.

Sunday I watched the Masters live as it played out in balmy temperatures that climbed as high as 50 degrees. In the short commercial breaks I flipped over to the Twins game. This was only the second game in what had been meant to be a three-game series because Friday’s game had been called, not on account of rain or even snow, but simply, “cold”. I saw Joe Mauer standing at the plate in the bright spring sunshine, great clouds of his breath obscuring his famous sideburns.

You know, if this keeps up we might want to go back and look at those theories on how to reroute the North Atlantic Drift.

More “light” reading for the global swarmers

I’m not looking to turn this blog into a non-stop expose of the science (or lack thereof) on the global warming consensus, but I’m always on the lookout for news or studies that indicate the “consensus” on this topic is far from settled scientifically. The thing is, you just don’t have to look that hard to find contrary sources.

For example, this article from the (London) Sunday Times (HT: The Llama Butchers), that describes an experiment that confirms the impact of solar variations on the climate. (An experiment, one could assume, that is repeatable by others — what a concept!) Anyway, you can check out the article for yourself.

E.U. gassing the planet

According to a copyrighted ABC News story , White House Press Secretary Tony Snow is citing a study from the International Energy Agency that shows that European Union’s carbon dioxide emmissions from fossil fuel increased at more than two times the rate of these emissions from the U.S. between 2000 and 2004. In the U.S. (which didn’t sign the Kyoto Protocol) carbon emissions increased by 1.7 percent in that time period, while the EU saw a 5 percent increase.

I think Snow may have been referring to this report, CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion 1971-2004. I don’t have the €120 on me that the IEA wants in exchange for getting a copy of the entire report, but I suspect the White House was able to take it out of petty cash. While focusing on the years 2000-2004 is a bit self-serving, and it’s questionable how much of a direct impact the Bush administration has had on these numbers (other than less heavy-breathing in the White House compared to the previous president), it is an interesting comparison to see the results of a somewhat-free economy versus the carbon-cap system in place in Europe, and could bear further research into the mechanisms related to this growth.

Another reason to shiver

There’s an interesting article this week entitled Global Warming: The Cold, Hard Facts? in the Canada Free Press by Dr. Timothy Bell, one of the first Canadians with a Ph.D. in Climatology (University of London), a former climatology professor at the Univesity of Winnipeg, and someone who claims an extensive background in reconstruction of past climates and the impact of climate change on human history and the human condition. Dr. Bell provides an illuminating “behind-the-scenes” look at the methods (sadly, not the Scientific one) being used to promote global warming pronouncements and suppress dissent. An excerpt (emphasis mine):



Since I obtained my doctorate in climatology from the University of London, Queen Mary College, England my career has spanned two climate cycles. Temperatures declined from 1940 to 1980 and in the early 1970’s global cooling became the consensus. This proves that consensus is not a scientific fact. By the 1990’s temperatures appeared to have reversed and Global Warming became the consensus. It appears I’ll witness another cycle before retiring, as the major mechanisms and the global temperature trends now indicate a cooling.



No doubt passive acceptance yields less stress, fewer personal attacks and makes career progress easier. What I have experienced in my personal life during the last years makes me understand why most people choose not to speak out; job security and fear of reprisals. Even in University, where free speech and challenge to prevailing wisdoms are supposedly encouraged, academics remain silent.



I once received a three page letter that my lawyer defined as libellous, from an academic colleague, saying I had no right to say what I was saying, especially in public lectures. Sadly, my experience is that universities are the most dogmatic and oppressive places in our society. This becomes progressively worse as they receive more and more funding from governments that demand a particular viewpoint.



…(snip)…



Another cry in the wildenerness is Richard Lindzen’s. He is an atmospheric physicist and a professor of meteorology at MIT, renowned for his research in dynamic meteorology – especially atmospheric waves. He is also a member of the National Academy of Sciences and has held positions at the University of Chicago, Harvard University and MIT. Linzen frequently speaks out against the notion that significant Global Warming is caused by humans. Yet nobody seems to listen.



I think it may be because most people don’t understand the scientific method which Thomas Kuhn so skilfully and briefly set out in his book “The Structure of Scientific Revolutions.” A scientist makes certain assumptions and then produces a theory which is only as valid as the assumptions. The theory of Global Warming assumes that CO2 is an atmospheric greenhouse gas and as it increases temperatures rise. It was then theorized that since humans were producing more CO2 than before, the temperature would inevitably rise. The theory was accepted before testing had started, and effectively became a law.



As Lindzen said many years ago: “the consensus was reached before the research had even begun.” Now, any scientist who dares to question the prevailing wisdom is marginalized and called a sceptic, when in fact they are simply being good scientists.
This has reached frightening levels with these scientists now being called climate change denier with all the holocaust connotations of that word. The normal scientific method is effectively being thwarted.



Read the whole thing. (HT: Dodgeblogium and Watcher of Weasels).

An inconvenient truthiness

Even knowledge has to be in the fashion, and where it is not,
it is wise to affect ignorance.

— Baltasar Gracian

“Truthiness” is the recent colloquialism that describes things that are thought to be facts merely because they “feel” right. The word is new, but the phenomenon isn’t, as reflected by the Mark Twain quote at the top of this page all this week: “We all do no end of feeling, and we mistake it for thinking.” I knew I was going to throw that quote up there as soon as I saw the Super Bowl commercial on Sunday claiming that 50,000 (or whatever) people die of second-hand smoke this year, and wondering if I was “alright with that.” It actually made me wonder how many billions of dollars was going to be burned due to second-hand statistics this year in the name of politically-correct junk science.

Actually, it is in the name of an ever-more-grasping (and brazen) attempt to choke off individual freedoms and liberty, supposedly for our own good, whether the issue is city-wide, state-wide or nation-wide smoking bans, or the latest global warming power-play. The strategy is all-too-familiar; get yourself some “science”, declare it reflects a consensus and then shout-down any opposition in an effort to intimidate or marginalize scientists with differing views and evidence and in the hopes of the public can be beaten into such a stupor that it can’t think or reason for itself. The effort is so obvious it is almost comical except that it the stakes are getting far too high.

The scientific method of observation, hypotheses, prediction, correction and ultimately verification by repetition to determine facts is being readily replaced by obfuscation, hypocrisy, perversion and political correction ultimately verified by repeating the lie over and over again. For centuries we’ve been told that religious fanatics are those who cling to their dubious “facts” in the face of scientific evidence to the contrary, yet the anti-smokers and the global-warmers often do the same thing today and will go after those who differ with them with a fervor and vitriol that Galileo would recognize. Whether it’s out of religious fervor, a desire for political power or something as prosaic as profit, there is no shortage of those who apparently picked up their scientific knowledge while staying at a Holiday Inn Express. They’re even going so far in some places in Europe to outlaw anyone who dissents from the global-warming consensus (which will come in handy when they try to squelch the reporting on how poorly Europe is doing in meeting its own Kyoto-mandated objectives).

Facts, as they say, are stubborn things, and they aren’t illegal yet. There is, in fact, some significant evidence mitigating or even opposing the new flavors of scientific consensus, whether it’s the effects of second hand smoke or the causes for changes in the environment (and whenever one side accuses the other of having an agenda, it’s useful to look at which group is trying to examine the facts and which is exercising personal attacks). By all means, check out the American Lung Association on second-hand smoke, but then look at Dave Hitt’s site, The Facts to see how the ALA’s studies hold up (Dave, too, has an agenda, it’s listed here).

There’s also — at least for now — a wealth of information on global warming that differs from the “consensus”; including a recent, peer-reviewed report that suggests global cooling“>global cooling is on the way. This week Bogus Gold linked a handy reference for Refuting the Climate Goebbels that features a series of articles in The National Post (Canada) describing a series of “Global Warming Deniers” — extremely credible scientists, climatologists, statisticians, and more — who are braving the group-think to focus on the facts. I’ve read through the first couple in the series and I think it’s worth linking all ten here for easy reference.

Canada.com — The Deniers Series
Statistics Needed — Part 1
Warming is real, and has benefits — Part II
The hurricane expert who stood up to UN junk science — Part III
Polar scientists on thin ice — Part IV
The original denier: into the cold — Part V
The sun moves climate change — Part VI
Will the sun cool us? — Part VII
The limits of predictability — Part VIII
Look to Mars for the truth on global warming — Part IX
Limited role for CO2 — Part X

Let’s hear it for the Boy

I work for a company in the risk assessment business. There are elements of our business who take more than a casual interest in the weather, as it can mean billions of dollars in claims and millions of dollars in capital that has to be set aside as reserves. One of our industry publications had this report today:

The climate phenomenon El Nino made an unexpected return this year, and its influence on world weather patterns could have an impact on the property/casualty insurance industry — including fewer hurricanes for the rest of the 2006 season.

El Nino is a large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate phenomenon linked to a periodic warming in sea surface temperatures across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. Steve Smith, an atmospheric physicist and senior vice president of Carvill’s ReAdvisory, said “a weak El Nino” formed about a month ago and appears to be affecting hurricane formation.

“I wouldn’t expect too many hurricanes for the rest of the season,” Smith said.

The Colorado State University-based Tropical Meteorology Project was even more blunt, lowering its tropical storm forecast to below-average activity for the rest of the season and predicting no tropical cyclone activity in November, “largely due to the rapid emergence of an El Nino event during the latter part of this summer.” Hurricane season ends Nov. 30.

“A hurricane is kind of like a heat engine in the atmosphere,” said Peter Dailey, lead meteorologist for catastrophe modeler AIR Worldwide Corp. “It can be disrupted by mixing the atmosphere. When we have an El Nino event, it tends to increase the wind shear in the Caribbean.”

So far, there have been nine named storms this season, and not one hurricane has made U.S. landfall.

Robert Hartwig, senior vice president and chief economist of the Insurance Information Institute, said El Nino’s influence on hurricane formation is “a beneficial impact.”

Ahhh, warming water means fewer hurricanes and, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the typical El Nino effect on global weather means warmer than average winter weather in western and central Canada, which translates to a warmer than average winter for western and central U.S. — including our own Minnesota. Maybe I didn’t need to buy my wife the new pair of flannel lined jeans and microfleece long underwear at Cabelas for her birthday after all. Maybe I can negotiate a lower fee upfront with the guy who plows my driveway.

Of course, El Nino weather patterns also usually mean more storm activity in California and more nor’easters in the northeast. Oh, those poor blue states. I bet Karl Rove had something to do with this.

Bad news for the Reverend Mother: global cooling on the way

I don’t think there’s a bigger freeze baby in the state than my wife. Flannel-lined pants, three or four layers of shirts and sweaters and afghans strategically placed around the house are standard for her between Labor Day and Memorial Day. During this time she’s likely to say that my best feature is the BTUs I put out. This report suggests that our retirement years might be golden but cold.

Scientist predicts ‘mini Ice Age’

ST. PETERSBURG, Russia, Feb. 7 (UPI) — A Russian astronomer has predicted that Earth will experience a “mini Ice Age” in the middle of this century, caused by low solar activity.

Khabibullo Abdusamatov of the Pulkovo Astronomic Observatory in St. Petersburg said Monday that temperatures will begin falling six or seven years from now, when global warming caused by increased solar activity in the 20th century reaches its peak, RIA Novosti reported.

The coldest period will occur 15 to 20 years after a major solar output decline between 2035 and 2045, Abdusamatov said.

Dramatic changes in the earth’s surface temperatures are an ordinary phenomenon, not an anomaly, he said, and result from variations in the sun’s energy output and ultraviolet radiation.

The Northern Hemisphere’s most recent cool-down period occurred between 1645 and 1705. The resulting period, known as the Little Ice Age, left canals in the Netherlands frozen solid and forced people in Greenland to abandon their houses to glaciers, the scientist said.

Man, I hope this won’t interfere with my golf game.