Dumbest idea ever

by the Night Writer

Somebody had the brilliant idea to create a game app for the iPhone where the objective is to shake a baby to death, and then Apple thought it was a good idea to approve and market it.

What next, a baby-seal clubbing app? Columbine as a first-person-shooter? Concentration Camp Jenga?


FAIL

It’s amazing how quickly a bad idea can get disseminated via today’s technology — and how quickly the smack-down can take place (interesting details of what happened here and here).

Have guns that travel – but how many, really?

by the Night Writer

The Obama Administration has been saying over and over that 90 percent of the guns recovered from criminals in Mexico come from the U.S. Fox News has reported the actual total is 17 percent. According to an updated FactCheck.org report, however, they are both wrong by a significant margin.

Both numbers seemed rather far-fetched to me when I first heard them, but the FactCheck report looks like it has a pretty good handle on the facts and methodologies of what is a bit of a convoluted process to calculate. (FactCheck itself admits getting an incorrect answer its first time through). Here’s the skinny:

President Obama and Mexican president Calderon both said 90 percent of the guns recovered by Mexican authorities come from the U.S. SoS Hillary Clinton, Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill), Diane Feinstein (D-CA) repeated the figure (using the same teleprompter, perhaps?) and they’ve been faithfully echoed by the New York Times, The Chicago Tribune, The Christian Science Monitor and NBC who can’t afford calculators due to budget cuts. Their error — deliberate or inadvertent — is to leave out a few important words. What they should be saying is that 90 percent of guns recovered that the Mexican government submits for tracing can be traced back to the U.S. As Fox and others noted, Mexico only submits a percentage of the guns it recovers for tracing, mainly because most of the guns are untraceable. As FactCheck notes:

…Mexican Attorney General Eduardo Medina Mora put the number of recovered crime weapons in the country over the past two years at nearly 29,000, according to USA Today. And figures given by ATF make clear that the agency doesn’t trace nearly all of those.

According to ATF, Mexico submitted 7,743 firearms for tracing in fiscal year 2008 (which ended Oct. 1) and 3,312 guns in fiscal 2007. That adds up to a fraction of the two-year total given by Mexico’s attorney general. He may be referring to a slightly different 24-month period, but that can’t account for more than a part of the discrepancy. The number is growing, and already this year, Mexico has submitted more than 7,500 guns for tracing, according to ATF. But even if all those guns are added in, the total submitted for tracing since the start of fiscal 2007 doesn’t come close to the 29,000 figure that Mexico says it has recovered.

While the Administration stumbles over words, Fox — deliberately or inadvertently — used the wrong number (based on confusing ATF testimony) to do its math. Fox said only 5,114 of the 29,000 recovered guns came through the U.S. Back to FactCheck:

The 5,114 figure is simply wrong. What Newell said quite clearly is that the number of guns submitted to ATF in those two years was 11,055: “3,312 in FY 2007 [and] 7,743 in FY 2008.” Newell also testified, as other ATF officials have done, that 90 percent of the guns traced were determined to have come from the U.S. So based on Newell’s testimony, the Fox reporters should have used a figure of 9,950 guns from U.S. sources. That figures out to just over 34 percent of guns recovered, assuming that the 29,000 figure supplied by Mexico’s attorney general is correct.

Even that number is too low. At our request, an ATF spokesman gave us more detailed figures for how many guns had been submitted and traced during those two years. Of the guns seized in Mexico and given to ATF for tracing, the agency actually found 95 percent came from U.S. sources in fiscal 2007 and 93 percent in fiscal 2008. That comes to a total of 10,347 guns from U.S. sources for those two years, or 36 percent of what Mexican authorities say they recovered.

Ok, 34-36 percent isn’t exactly a small number (unless you compare it to 90 percent). As other bloggers have noted, most of the guns used in Mexico are fully-automatic weapons which are not readily available in the U.S. but can be purchased, stolen or donated by other entities throughout Central and South America. Not that a shade-tree armorer couldn’t convert a U.S. semi-automatic AR-15 to automatic, but the drug gangs and cartels do have other options.

While it would be very nice if these guns didn’t cross the border (and kept prices down domestically) and some might say even 34 percent is horrific when innocent by-standers are being killed, the purchases are being made by criminals to use on other criminals. The Administration’s 90 percent chorus, however, seems like part of a plan to further complicate (if not outlaw) legal gun transactions for law-abiding citizens in the U.S.

Now that the numbers have been brought together and the math is out there it will be interesting to see if the Administration and Fox (and others) continue to use their incorrect numbers going forward, or if any other media will bother to do the math as part of the responsibility of a free press. Whatever numbers you see being used next will tell you a lot about the person or organization using them.

A suggestion

by the Night Writer

There has been some discussion around the Night Chateau about what gift young Ben should give his groomsmen. Literary sort that he is, and with an employee discount at the Seminary bookstore, Ben has been thinking of respectable tomes by Wichtenstein, or perhaps a daily Kierkegaard reader. These are noble and edifying considerations to be sure.

Philosophically, I’m thinking something like this might be more popular:

April showers

by the Night Writer

I’m busy with a lot of behind the scenes stuff. Of course, I’m not the only one who’s busy: we’re on the cusp of the countdown to the last 30 days before the Mall Diva’s wedding. That means bridal showers such as the one held for her Sunday afternoon at church.

I need to find out what they were putting in the punch bowl.

Science!

by the Night Writer

The Mall Diva and Tiger Lilly still like to hang out on the bed with the Reverend Mother before bedtime, though the RM goes to bed a lot earlier than they do. There was a beautiful breeze the other night and a good time to open a bedroom window in the master suite of the Night. RM breathed in deeply and as the Mall Diva entered the room said, “Why does the night air smell different than in the day?”

To which the Diva immediately replied, “Because the sun is stinky!”

A few minutes later Tiger Lilly made her entrance and was asked the same question.

“Because it’s black.”

Road construction season

by the Night Writer

If there were a road-map of my brain you’d likely see a lot of philosophical or meditative roads and perhaps not a few dead ends. Some parallel each other, others are all over the map, and some intersect (it’s an arrangement only a St. Paul city engineer could appreciate). Anyway, the other day I was idling at the intersection of Albert Jay Nock Drive and Bonhoeffer Way (see my April 9th and April 15th posts) and started wondering how similar those paths might or might not be, and could they merge?

Both men lived at the same time, and both were committed pacifists. Bonhoeffer was executed by the Nazis and Nock’s career essentially ended in large part due to his opposition to the U.S.’s participation in World War II. Because of their unshakable principles Nock saw the State as the natural enemy of man, while Bonhoeffer certainly saw the Nazi State, at least, in the same way. The difference between them, however, is that Nock dismissed the masses and their inevitable destructiveness in favor of preserving a “remnant” who could be taught and encouraged so they might rebuild society. Bonhoeffer was nearly the opposite, pondering and preaching on how we might live in order to serve and elevate “the Other.” Nock’s philosophy was perhaps demonstrated in the extreme by Ayn Rand’s (another contemporary) ultimate worship of the individual, while the epitome of what Bonhoeffer worshiped could be described as sainthood. It’s an interesting comparison, to me anyway, but not the point of this post.

For me, Nock may be a fascinating side-trip, but Bonhoeffer is the main drag. As a Christian, I believe that we achieve true happiness not in glorifying ourselves but in demonstrating the glory of God through our interaction with others. From God first saying “It is not fit for Adam to be alone”, to the Sermon on the Mount, to the letters of Paul, to Bonhoeffer writing “Life Together” we see it is all about relationship; it’s certainly the case for the deepest satisfactions and greatest joys in my life. I see my mission not to get people into church, but to get the Church out to the people. As I pondered these things I “coincidentally” came across a very insightful poem earlier today on Through the Illusion. It’s one that apparently has been getting emailed quite a bit and is entitled A Spiritual Conspiracy and talks about those who quietly interact with others as they “be the change they want to see.”

I think the message of the poem was intended to be ecumenical, or even humanist, but I can’t help but see it through a Christian perspective. As C.S. Lewis (another contemporary of Nock, Bonhoeffer and Rand — talk about your greatest generation!) put it, “I believe in Christianity as I believe that the sun has risen: not only because I see it, but because by it I see everything else.” After reading the poem I applauded it in the Comment section of TTI, but also felt compelled to write a challenge to the sense of complacency and hubris that would undo its spirit:

There are those who want to cheer-lead for change, who belong to the right groups, show up religiously at church or the progressive book-clubs and cafes and feel deeply about things — and “do” nothing. They embrace the concept but can’t grasp the reality; they love “the people” but don’t know a person. They have little or no involvement, and therefore little affect, in individual lives of others outside their family (and sometimes even inside of it). Yet that is where the “change you want to see” happens. You change a little, you help someone else change, and you change even more. Lather, rinse, repeat.

I wrote it as a challenge to myself and not to elevate myself, though sometimes I experience elevation as I described back in February.

Yes, I’ve felt and enjoyed “elevation” in watching certain movies or reading certain books or hearing certain speakers, but I’ve also felt it most profoundly when infused by a Trinity that’s anything but pop. How ironic, it appears to me, that the learned experts can walk right up to the edge of revelation and stop themselves just short, as if it were a cliff they dare not let themselves go over.

Amazon’s editorial synopsis of Keltner’s book includes the following description (emphasis mine): “A new examination of the surprising origins of human goodness. In Born to Be Good, Dacher Keltner demonstrates that humans are not hardwired to lead lives that are ‘nasty, brutish, and short’— we are in fact born to be good. He investigates an old mystery of human evolution: why have we evolved positive emotions like gratitude, amusement, awe, and compassion that promote ethical action and are the fabric of cooperative societies?”

Evolved? Could, perhaps, those emotions have been implanted in us by God? Could they even be the essence of what “being created in the likeness and image of” means? That is, not so much a physical likeness but a spiritual harmonic that resonates in the presence of goodness? I have been suddenly “elevated” while singing praises to God, or in the midst of praying for someone, or when a revelation crystallizes suddenly in my half-alert mind. It doesn’t happen every time I do these things; in fact it usually happens when I’m not expecting it to. In the middle of a song that we’ve sung dozens of times, for example, or in half-way through praying for someone when — whoosh elevation! (Actually, in our circles, we call it “anointing”) It seems to wait for that split-second when I stop thinking about myself to manifest itself and I know that I’ve made a different kind of connection, or been a conduit for one.

As I read the poem I was also reminded of a song by Bruce Cockburn entitled “Lovers in a Dangerous Time”:

Don’t the hours grow shorter as the days go by
You never get to stop and open your eyes
One day you’re waiting for the sky to fall
And next you’re dazzled by the beauty of it all
When you’re lovers in a dangerous time
Lovers in a dangerous time

These fragile bodies of touch and taste
This vibrant skin this hair like lace
Spirits open to the thrust of grace
Never a breath you can afford to waste

{Refrain}
When you’re lovers in a dangerous time
Lovers in a dangerous time
When you’re lovers in a dangerous time
Lovers in a dangerous time

When you’re lovers in a dangerous time
Sometimes you’re made to feel as if your love’s a crime
Nothing worth having comes without some kind of fight
Got to kick at the darkness till it bleeds daylight

{Refrain}

We are lovers in a dangerous time, but the darkness can and does bleed daylight.

Of mass, and men, and the remains of the day

by the Night Writer

I thought I was pretty well-read, being a fan of history and having minored in poli-sci in college (though my profs were generally left-of-center and one was a flaming communist), but my wife forwarded me an essay the other day by someone I’d never heard of — and really should have: Albert Jay Nock. The essay is entitled “Isaiah’s Job” and originally appeared in the Atlantic Monthly in 1936. It makes a strong case for refusing to pander to the “masses” in favor of serving the nearly invisible and unknown “remnant”.

It was especially relevant to me because I’ve been thinking a lot lately about how far one can compromise in politics (or anything) without losing a working grasp on one’s principles. This has been especially true in light of the series Mitch Berg has been doing on what the Republican Party needs to do to develop and disseminate its message in Minnesota. I’ve frankly long-since grown weary of the philosophy of voting for the lesser of two evils (since that’s still voting for evil), which forces me to think in terms of what I really believe is important and what I’m willing to do to achieve it — even if it means “losing” a few election cycles. Reading Nock’s essay it was amazing and stirring to see how eloquently he was stating some of the conclusions I’ve come to, some of which have found their way into recent posts here.

Even though some of what I’ve learned so far about Nock suggests that he gets out on some philosophical ledges where my brain isn’t willing to go, I’d like to read more about him. In this essay alone I feel my brain stretching in unexpected ways as he describes the differences between the masses and the remnant, and the potential rewards and ultimate futility of pandering to one with the nominal rewards but lasting utility of serving the other.

The term “remnant” has developed strong religious overtones in certain evangelical circles where it has become a by-word of particular eschatological beliefs. In Isaiah’s Job, Nock begins with the prophet Isaiah and the original biblical references, but connects the concept to the writings of Plato and Marcus Aurelius as well, offering a classic “old times” rather than “end times” perspective along with a stirring call to embrace an apparently impossible assignment.

Update:

Today’s Day by Day cartoon is apt:

Return of the pirate (post)

by the Night Writer

The adventures of pirates have been much in the news in recent months, and it has nothing to do with Johnny Depp or box-office hits. Whether it’s hijacking of a ship loaded with Russian tanks, to the latest misadventure with an American-flagged cargo ship, pirates are becoming good copy. One might be tempted to think this is a relatively new threat but in fact it is one that has never really gone away, as I pointed out in a post back in November of 2005. It’s relevant to our current overnight sensation news stories, so I’m re-running it now. All of the links below are still current. The StarTribune article referenced in the first graf is no longer available, however.

Yo-ho and avast, there still be pirates — and why you might care

I saw an article today in the StarTribune, Miami-based Cruise Ship Attacked by Pirates off Somalia, and it reminded me of a book I read last year by John S. Burnett entitled Dangerous Waters.

It’s an excellent and eye-opening read about a subject most people think has become quaint: high seas piracy. Burnett was motivated to research and write the book after his own small boat was boarded and robbed. While you won’t find much in the way of masted ships flying the Jolly Roger looking for easy pickings today, the reality is that the basics of piracy in the 17th century and today are still in place: slow-moving, lightly-guarded ships loaded with valuable cargo in international waters with little controlling authority — and a large, international pool of people greedy enough, or desperate enough, that have access to fast boats and weaponry and little fear of being caught. In fact, about all that’s changed is the technology. Galleons have been replaced by high-speed boats; cannons replaced with rocket-propelled grenades; cutlasses with Uzis.

While this (literally) cut-throat business has never really gone away, even in the age of high-tech navies, it is mostly invisible because it doesn’t affect our lives in many noticeable ways. As Burnett points out, however, piracy today can easily lead to a serious and confounding global problem.

One of the most pirate-infested areas today is the Malacca Straits. While the location might not be as colorful-sounding as, say, the Caribbean and you might be a little vague on the geography, the Malacca Straits are a very important little body of water. They link the Indian and Pacific Oceans and are the shortest sea route between India, China and Indonesia. They are filled with shallow reefs and tiny islands and there are only narrow channels available for the nearly 1000 ships – mostly cargo ships and oil tankers – that pass through each day like slow, fat fish in a barrel. Heavy traffic in narrow confines makes for relatively easy pickings for pirates in “smash and grab” types of raids (board, loot any crew and passengers, take electronics and other valuables from the bridge and beat it to a nearby hideout or fishing village). Sometimes, however, this results in tanker or cargo crews being tied up and their ships left to plow on out of control through a highly congested area. It doesn’t take much imagination to think of the effects that a grounding or sinking of a tanker in this area could have on this vital commercial thoroughfare. Here’s some of what the above link about the straits has to say:

The narrowest point of this shipping lane is the Phillips Channel in the Singapore Strait, which is only 1.5 miles wide at its narrowest point. This creates a natural bottleneck, with the potential for a collision, grounding, or oil spill (in addition, piracy has historically been a regular occurrence in the Singapore Strait, but over the past 15 years has grown alarmingly). Some 400 shipping lines and 700 ports worldwide rely on the Malacca and Singapore straits to get to the Singapore port. For example, 80% of Japan’s oil comes from the Middle East via the Malacca Straits. To skip the straits would force a ship to travel an extra 994 miles from the Gulf. All excess capacity of the world fleet might be absorbed, with the effect strongest for crude oil shipments and dry bulk such as coal. Closure of the Strait of Malacca would immediately raise freight rates worldwide. With Chinese oil imports from the Middle East increasing steadily, the Strait of Malacca is likely to grow in strategic importance in coming years.

Whether through criminal accident or premeditated terrorism (elements of Abu Sayaff and Al Quaida are active in this area), it may be just a matter of time before such an incident fills headlines around the world.

It’s not an unknown threat to people who’s business it is to be concerned with these things, Burnett’s book and others (see below) does a good job of describing the efforts cargo and passenger lines, governments and military forces are making to mitigate the problem while also describing the bureaucratic, political and logistical hurdles they face.

All in all, today’s news story (selected by the Strib perhaps because it was so unusual sounding) highlights an issue we often overlook. If you’re intrigued by this information, Dangerous Waters is a sobering but very interesting read. You might also find the following related books suggested by Amazon of interest:

Jolly Roger With an Uzi: The Rise and Threat of Modern Piracy by Jack A. Gottschalk

Pirates Aboard!: Forty Cases of Piracy Today and What Bluewater Cruisers Can Do About It by Klaus Hympendahl

Maritime Terror: Protecting Your Vessel and Your Crew Against Piracy by Jim Gray

Tickle Me Ammo? Bullets scarce as demand shoots up

by the Night Writer

Praise the Lord and pass the ammunition as it appears the only way to get bullets now and for the forseeable future is by divine intervention. I won’t get into what caliber gun Jesus would use (though He did say, “Blessed are the Peacemakers,” which, coincidentally, use the same bullets that I’m trying to find) but right now there is a national supply and demand issue on a scale of trying to feed the multitude with a few loaves and fishes — and the baguettes are on backorder.

Anyone who has tried to purchase handgun ammunition recently has found the shelves bare and on-line retailers embarrassed. This isn’t a case of direct government or retailer-induced artificial scarcity that typically drives most commercial shortages, though the perceived threat of government involvement appears to be a significant factor in consumer reaction, as the Utah Standard-Examinerreports:

Ammo in short supply; Dem takeover gets blame

OGDEN — With firearm dealers struggling to keep ammunition on their shelves, it seems the gun and ammunition business has been stimulated in a way few people expected.

The minute Barack Obama stepped into the White House, people scrambled to gun stores to buy as much ammunition as they could get their hands on. Now, there’s a shortage of ammunition all over the country as demand is three times the supply.

“It’s been a huge topic since the election,” said Mike Casey, vice president of Smith & Edwards in Farr West.

“Ammunition is hard to come by, and the demand isn’t getting smaller. Even with production increases, it is extremely difficult to get ammo.”

Casey has been out of several calibers of ammunition for more than six weeks now, with no expected date of delivery.

The run on ammo is one effect of an increase in gun sales, or would-be gun sales:

From Jan. 1 through the end of March, 63,348 people in Utah have gotten the background check necessary for obtaining a firearm, according to data on an FBI Web site.

In the past 10 years, the state has averaged 90,000 people a year getting those background checks. If this year continues at the same rate as its first three months, Utah would have nearly met its yearly average of background checks by the end of April.

New gun owners naturally need bullets, and existing gun owners don’t want to be caught short. As a result (emphasis mine),

One manufacturer, Winchester, has back orders for 200 million rounds of .45-caliber bullets.

The company’s machines produce 1.6 million rounds a day, which puts them more than 120 days behind.

It’s hard to imagine there’s a need for 200 million rounds of .45 caliber in the general public. Shoot, I’d be happy if I could get another 50 or 100 rounds before my CCW proficiency test, but I’m told repeatedly that September or October is the earliest to expect re-supply. And I can just about forget about loading my own as well.

And it’s getting tougher to make your own bullets, too. Reloading supplies sell out nearly as fast as they hit stores, Spencer said.

Recently, Kent Shooters Supply received a shipment of 80 pounds of gunpowder. That amount, typically a six-month supply for the store, was sold in three days.

“It’s crazy. The guy in the past who bought a pound of powder is now buying all I have on the counter,” Spencer said.

The situation is nationwide, not just in Utah as other recent stories from Milwaukee, Kansas, Virginia, Texas, Arkansas and California show.

Another source I visited reported that the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) shows that background checks on the sale of firearms jumped 23.3 percent in February when compared to February 2008. The increase follows a 29 percent rise in January, a 24 percent rise in December and a 42 percent jump in November, when a record 1,529,635 background checks were performed. I checked the NICS site myself to verify this, but couldn’t find that data despite checking several categories and trying different word searches. However, I did eventually come across this article which verified the November and December numbers. Perhaps someone wiser in the ways of dealing with government opacity can find the relevant data for the first quarter of this year.

Judging by this type of activity it only seems natural to suggest that if President Obama and Congress want to save the U.S. auto industry all they have to do is threaten to ban SUVs.