by the Night Writer
It’s the time of the year for interesting rumors to fly as fast and furious as errant footballs. And given that the crashing economy has wrecked a lot of people’s retirement plans, some people may be deciding they need to keep working a little longer. Let’s go live to the Brett Favre news conference at Nye’s Polonnaise in Northeast Minneapolis for the latest update:
Music Video Code by Video Code Zone.
Music Video Code by Video Code Zone.
by the Night Writer
When I was younger the weddings I went to far outnumbered the funerals. That ratio is changing, it seems, to something like 50-50, but I’m hoping to get through this summer and fall with with a blaze of those more youthful days and something like a 3-to-1 wedding ratio. Sometime well into the future the ratio will skew inexorably to the more somber tones. This year, however, is off to a bright start as the funeral I attended last Friday was more like a party.
As I wrote in my last post, my grandmother Lizey passed away just short of being 102 years old. I returned to the family hometown for the service and to the same funeral home where I’ve attended four other family funerals. I knew this wasn’t going to be the typical affair, however, when my brother called my cell from the visitation while I was still on the highway heading south, an hour and a half away. He was there with aunts, uncles and cousins and it sounded like there was a party going on in the background.
When I got there Grandma was laid out in peace, the only one it seemed like who wasn’t laughing, hugging, telling stories. This has always been a loud branch of the family, and all the stories were familiar ones and I think she would have liked seeing everyone together again and hearing the same old tales…the kind of tales that make you start to laugh as soon as the first few words are out of the teller’s mouth and you anticipate what’s to come. In one corner my oldest uncle was holding forth and in another corner his oldest son was doing the same, perhaps even more expressively, the circle unbroken. Three of her four surviving children were there, almost all of the grandchildren, a handful of the great-grandchildren, and once I caught a glimpse of the great-great-grandchild whose mother had been about the same age the last time I had seen her. I was told that Grandma’s remaining sons had decided that the last $100 of her estate was going to my own daughter, who marries later this month.
The funeral was the next day and the six grandsons were the pall-bearers. It had been a long while since the six of us — all of us within five years of age of each other — had been together but the elbowing, nudging and mild-horseplay seemed to pick up without missing a beat. The funeral director brought the six of us — Robbie, Roger, me, my brother, Kevin and Kent (who we call Fred) — together to run through the drill with us. After a few minutes she smiled and said, “We usually like to have the pall-bearers sit together in a group, but in your case I think we’ll split you up.” I told her that if she really wanted to get our attention she’d have to threaten to “beat the pee-waddin” out of us, and Grandma would understand. She allowed how she’d keep that in reserve.
The service was a sweet celebration. The wife of one of the great-grandkids sang two beautiful songs and the pastor from her life-long church, First Baptist, spoke of her great contributions the history and fellowship of the church and the rich heritage passed on into the lives of the family as he had witnessed over the previous 24 hours. Through the course of his brief talk he mentioned “First Baptist” about eight times. Later I told Aunt Sis that, given Grandma’s age, I wasn’t sure if the pastor had been referring to the church or to Lizey.
After the service the short procession moved out from the funeral home behind the hearse, heading through the drizzle for the Hodge-Enloe cemetery out on old highway UU. In the country, cemeteries are usually named after the families that founded them or the farms where they are located (often one and the same). Here’s something else about the country: when a funeral procession passes by, everyone on either side of the road pulls over. In the city, even with a police escort, people crowd you, even cut through the line.
Even in the mist and drizzle that day the hills were a beautiful green as we made it out on the old road, gravel the last mile or so, and there was a fresh smell to the air. It’s an old land, and an old cemetery, originally founded in 1889. I knew people with the same last names as those on the stones we walked past, carrying the casket, but I didn’t know any of those…except that I did, if that makes sense to you.
When the short prayer and final reading were finished we turned and walked back across the rough, wet grass to our cars. There was rain, and there was gloom and there was the new bright green on the old hills behind, around and in front of us, and the smell of spring and renewal.
by the Night Writer
My grandmother, Elizabeth “Lizey” Burleson Stewart Ray, passed away Wednesday morning in her sleep at 101 years of age, just a couple of months shy of making it to 102. I visited her when I was down in Missouri a few weeks ago and was able to hold hands with her for a few minutes but she wasn’t aware of too much that was going on.
She’d been that way for quite some time but had been livelier of late and more interactive, probably due to a change in her medication. This was a good thing but also raised a tough question for the family about what to say if she asked where my father — who died more than a year ago — was. It was decided we’d just say “Oh, he’s home, Lizey” and let it go at that. She’d been devastated when her oldest son died several years ago and no one thought it would do any good to tell her about her youngest boy.
We seldom lived near each other for most of my childhood. We’d see her a couple of times a year, usually, and a couple of summers we stayed with her at her lake place where my great-uncle Harvey would take us fishing out in his boat and tell us stories about the mischief my father and his brothers used to get into — almost all of which would end with Grandma’s stern intervention. When I got older we talked more, especially after I got married and had kids of my own. Her faith was very important to her, and when we’d visit we could talk about her life and what it was like raising those four boys and two girls. I remember one time she told about the oldest boy getting very ill and having to go to the hospital; about how worried she was and how much she prayed; and how, when she walked out into the corridor outside his room she saw an angel and knew everything was going to be fine.
This morning I thought about that and of the time the family put on a big bash for her 85th birthday. There was a quite a crowd, even with accounting for her children, the 17 grandchildren and I don’t know how many great-grandchildren. She had a lot to be proud of, and she was pretty pleased. I still remember her telling me, though, “So many of my friends have already gone home to be with the Lord. And they’re probably wondering what happened to me!”
I’m sure they’ve been having a grand time getting caught up.
If we really think that home is elsewhere and that this life is a “wandering to find home,” why should we not look forward to the arrival?
— C.S. Lewis
by the Minfidel
Suppressed photo of Air Force One taking a shortcut en route to an Earth Day speech:
Either that, or the President’s jet could be taking the long way around to Mexico to deliver Tamiflu and 100 Acorn Community Organizers to over-throw the drug cartels.
HT: The Lumberjack (again).
by the Night Writer
If you see any references to a count-down here on this blog or on certain others it is all in relation to this:
Shivaree
Dictionary: shiv·a·ree
n. Midwestern & Western U.S.
A noisy mock serenade for newlyweds. Also called regionally charivari, belling; Also called horning, serenade.
[Alteration of CHARIVARI.]
REGIONAL NOTE Shivaree is the most common American regional form of charivari, a French word meaning “a noisy mock serenade for newlyweds” and probably deriving in turn from a Late Latin word meaning “headache.” The term, most likely borrowed from French traders and settlers along the Mississippi River, was well established in the United States by 1805; an account dating from that year describes a shivaree in New Orleans: “The house is mobbed by thousands of the people of the town, vociferating and shouting with loud acclaim…. [M]any [are] in disguises and masks; and all have some kind of discordant and noisy music, such as old kettles, and shovels, and tongs…. All civil authority and rule seems laid aside” (John F. Watson). The word shivaree is especially common along and west of the Mississippi River. Its use thus forms a dialect boundary running north-south, dividing western usage from eastern. This is unusual in that most dialect boundaries run east-west, dividing the country into northern and southern dialect regions. Some regional equivalents are belling, used in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, and Michigan; horning, from upstate New York, northern Pennsylvania, and western New England; and serenade, a term used chiefly in the South Atlantic states.
Oh, and the count-down is at 26.
Greg Marmalard: Remain calm! All is well!
D-Day: Ramming speed!
Flu pandemics have become kind of a hobby of mine, not out of morbid interest but because I work in an industry that has to anticipate and model the potential impact of such things and also because I’m part of the team at work responsible for coordinating and communicating responses to a campus-wide disruptions such as fire, earthquake, tornados … or large numbers of employees unable to come to work. As such we get information from groups such as the World Health Organization and from Risk Management Solutions (RMS), a company that does catastrophic risk modeling.
The information that I am receiving from these very credible sources suggests, coupled with what I know of the avian-flu scare, that there is some reason to be concerned but no reason to lose perspective. I’ll share the bad news and good news here, along with a hat-tip to a previous Presidential administration likely to go unmentioned in the media accounts.
All flu viruses — whether our annual garden-variety flu strains or the most deadly ones — arise from animals (like birds or pigs); the virus mutates (called antigenetic drift) as it comes into contact with other organisms and spreads by becoming more communicable each time. I don’t know how many of these strains never develop to where they can be communicable between humans, but I do know that at least one crosses that evolutionary finish line every year. Generally these are comparatively mild but the potential is always there for a nasty strain. Indications are that this current version (identified as an A/H1N1), while called a Swine Flu, is actually a combo platter of Swine and Avian Flus and of strains already found in humans — this makes it more communicable, but also means we’re likelier to have more natural resistance.
Good news:
A/H1N1 is not H5N1, nor has it reached pandemic status yet. While people are dying from this (none so far in the U.S.) the early projections, hampered as they are by limited data so far, suggest that if it becomes a pandemic it will a moderate one with a chance to become severe. As RMS notes:
A typical ratio of actual cases to those hospitalized is likely to be between 2 to 10. This would give a case load estimate of between 3,000 and 16,000 people infected, and would suggest that the virus virulence is between 3.4% and 0.6% Death per Case. As context, the 1918 pandemic had a Death per Case of 2.5%, so when case loads are properly counted this virus could turn out to be as virulent or worse than the 1918, but it is more likely to be of significantly lower virulence. It seems to be considerably more deadly than normal seasonal flu, which has a DpC of around 0.1% but evidently does not have a virulence anywhere near as severe as the H5N1 ‘avian flu’ virus in the outbreak of 2006-07, which had a DpC of over 50%. In general this is likely to be classed as a ‘Low Pathogenicity’ influenza virus.
Another positive, according to Tevi Troy in a commentary in today’s Wall Street Journal, is that concerns about an Avian Flu outbreak as early as 2004 has led to better preparedness today:
Under President Bush, the federal government worked with manufacturers to accelerate vaccine development, stockpiled crucial antivirals like Tamiflu, war-gamed pandemic scenarios with senior officials, and increased the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) sample identification capabilities. These activities are bearing fruit today.
The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) has already deployed 12.5 million courses of antivirals — out of a total of 50 million — to states and local agencies. In addition, CDC’s new capacities have allowed Mexican officials to send flu samples to CDC for quick identification, a capability that did not exist a few years ago. Collaboration between the government and the private sector on vaccines — which Mr. Bush and his HHS team actively encouraged — could potentially allow manufacturers to shepherd a vaccine to market within four months of identifying the strain and getting the go-ahead from CDC or the World Health Organization.
…
Another issue: Under the Public Readiness and Emergency Preparedness (PREP) Act of 2006, the government has the authority to issue “Prep Act Declarations” granting liability protection to manufacturers whose products were used in public-health emergencies. This helps encourage manufacturers to develop countermeasures. The government issued a series of such declarations in 2007 and 2008. They protected the development and use of influenza vaccines and pandemic antivirals, as well as anthrax, smallpox and botulism products. The Obama administration should consider granting more of them — if appropriate — in the weeks ahead.
So far it also appears that this strain responds to Tamiflu — there had been concerns that the next significant flu mutation might be resistant.
It’s also worth noting that early indications are that the Initial Virus Reproductive Number (RO) of this outbreak appears to be low, meaning that the number of people infected by the virus by exposure to someone who has it is containable. While they are still tracing the infectiousness of the cases in Mexico, it is so far thought to be below the 1.5 RO of the typical seasonal flu. While the public’s awareness of this flu has increased dramatically in the past few days, reports of the outbreak have been coming in for weeks, suggesting it is containable.
An RO exceeding 1.8, however, is considered “uncontainable”; the RO of the 1918 pandemic was 2.7, while 1957’s was 2.1 and 1968’s was 2.0.
Bad news
It’s too early to judge if there’s really bad news yet, but most of the deaths so far have been in the young to middle-aged adult population. This is a concern because this is typically the healthiest and most-resistant group to influenza — and also the group that had the highest mortality in the 1918 outbreak. While infants and the aged typically account for most flu deaths each year, a return of the Avian Flu could turn this expectation on its head. Part of the theory is that this group is less likely to take the initial onset of the attack seriously and simply try to work through it (even bringing it to work with them). By the time they realize they’re truly sick they may be irreversibly caught in the spiral of a cytokine storm where the body’s own immune system becomes over-stimulated and actually attacks itself, with death occuring in as little as 48 to 72 hours. If this reaction is part of the viral bundle now being handed out it could get ugly. So far, however, pathology of deaths from this flu are being described as “severe pneumonia” (a common cause of death initiated by the flu) and not indicative of a cytokine storm. This is something that is going to be watched closely, however, as things progress.
Also at risk, of course, is the economy — you know, the one that’s been so hale and hearty of late. If you recall the effect of the SARS outbreak a few years ago on the Toronto economy — airports and businesses shut-down, people afraid to leave their homes — the same thing could happen on a larger scale if this progresses. Currently the WHO is studying whether it should raise the pandemic alert from level 3 to level 4 or 5, which would trigger national pandemic response plans that include travel restrictions, border closures, prohibitions on public gatherings (such as sporting events) and would issue drugs to front-line health responders.
The US has declared a Public Health Emergency – one step below the implementation of its full pandemic response plan. Many other countries are likely to ramp up their response measures soon.
More information is available on-line from the World Health Organization and the Centers for Disease Control. You can also review the series of posts I did on Avian Flu a few years back as these are still relevant. As I wrote then: by all means, come to your own conclusions. At the least I think you’ll find this subject is food for thought – and prayer.
Update:
The WHO has raised the Pandemic Alert to Phase 5 (evidence of of significant human-to-human transmission). Phase 6 is the highest alert and describes a pandemic situation (featuring “efficient and sustained widespread human-to-human transmission).
by the Night Writer
Somebody had the brilliant idea to create a game app for the iPhone where the objective is to shake a baby to death, and then Apple thought it was a good idea to approve and market it.
What next, a baby-seal clubbing app? Columbine as a first-person-shooter? Concentration Camp Jenga?
It’s amazing how quickly a bad idea can get disseminated via today’s technology — and how quickly the smack-down can take place (interesting details of what happened here and here).
by the Night Writer
The Obama Administration has been saying over and over that 90 percent of the guns recovered from criminals in Mexico come from the U.S. Fox News has reported the actual total is 17 percent. According to an updated FactCheck.org report, however, they are both wrong by a significant margin.
Both numbers seemed rather far-fetched to me when I first heard them, but the FactCheck report looks like it has a pretty good handle on the facts and methodologies of what is a bit of a convoluted process to calculate. (FactCheck itself admits getting an incorrect answer its first time through). Here’s the skinny:
President Obama and Mexican president Calderon both said 90 percent of the guns recovered by Mexican authorities come from the U.S. SoS Hillary Clinton, Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill), Diane Feinstein (D-CA) repeated the figure (using the same teleprompter, perhaps?) and they’ve been faithfully echoed by the New York Times, The Chicago Tribune, The Christian Science Monitor and NBC who can’t afford calculators due to budget cuts. Their error — deliberate or inadvertent — is to leave out a few important words. What they should be saying is that 90 percent of guns recovered that the Mexican government submits for tracing can be traced back to the U.S. As Fox and others noted, Mexico only submits a percentage of the guns it recovers for tracing, mainly because most of the guns are untraceable. As FactCheck notes:
…Mexican Attorney General Eduardo Medina Mora put the number of recovered crime weapons in the country over the past two years at nearly 29,000, according to USA Today. And figures given by ATF make clear that the agency doesn’t trace nearly all of those.
According to ATF, Mexico submitted 7,743 firearms for tracing in fiscal year 2008 (which ended Oct. 1) and 3,312 guns in fiscal 2007. That adds up to a fraction of the two-year total given by Mexico’s attorney general. He may be referring to a slightly different 24-month period, but that can’t account for more than a part of the discrepancy. The number is growing, and already this year, Mexico has submitted more than 7,500 guns for tracing, according to ATF. But even if all those guns are added in, the total submitted for tracing since the start of fiscal 2007 doesn’t come close to the 29,000 figure that Mexico says it has recovered.
While the Administration stumbles over words, Fox — deliberately or inadvertently — used the wrong number (based on confusing ATF testimony) to do its math. Fox said only 5,114 of the 29,000 recovered guns came through the U.S. Back to FactCheck:
The 5,114 figure is simply wrong. What Newell said quite clearly is that the number of guns submitted to ATF in those two years was 11,055: “3,312 in FY 2007 [and] 7,743 in FY 2008.” Newell also testified, as other ATF officials have done, that 90 percent of the guns traced were determined to have come from the U.S. So based on Newell’s testimony, the Fox reporters should have used a figure of 9,950 guns from U.S. sources. That figures out to just over 34 percent of guns recovered, assuming that the 29,000 figure supplied by Mexico’s attorney general is correct.
Even that number is too low. At our request, an ATF spokesman gave us more detailed figures for how many guns had been submitted and traced during those two years. Of the guns seized in Mexico and given to ATF for tracing, the agency actually found 95 percent came from U.S. sources in fiscal 2007 and 93 percent in fiscal 2008. That comes to a total of 10,347 guns from U.S. sources for those two years, or 36 percent of what Mexican authorities say they recovered.
Ok, 34-36 percent isn’t exactly a small number (unless you compare it to 90 percent). As other bloggers have noted, most of the guns used in Mexico are fully-automatic weapons which are not readily available in the U.S. but can be purchased, stolen or donated by other entities throughout Central and South America. Not that a shade-tree armorer couldn’t convert a U.S. semi-automatic AR-15 to automatic, but the drug gangs and cartels do have other options.
While it would be very nice if these guns didn’t cross the border (and kept prices down domestically) and some might say even 34 percent is horrific when innocent by-standers are being killed, the purchases are being made by criminals to use on other criminals. The Administration’s 90 percent chorus, however, seems like part of a plan to further complicate (if not outlaw) legal gun transactions for law-abiding citizens in the U.S.
Now that the numbers have been brought together and the math is out there it will be interesting to see if the Administration and Fox (and others) continue to use their incorrect numbers going forward, or if any other media will bother to do the math as part of the responsibility of a free press. Whatever numbers you see being used next will tell you a lot about the person or organization using them.
by the Night Writer
There has been some discussion around the Night Chateau about what gift young Ben should give his groomsmen. Literary sort that he is, and with an employee discount at the Seminary bookstore, Ben has been thinking of respectable tomes by Wichtenstein, or perhaps a daily Kierkegaard reader. These are noble and edifying considerations to be sure.
Philosophically, I’m thinking something like this might be more popular:
